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A fresh outlook for fixed income

Key takeaways

  • Even after the Fed's rate cuts of the past year and a half, interest rates on many types of bonds are still relatively high compared with where they’ve been in recent decades.
  • Those yields could make this an attractive potential entry point for bonds, and could help provide a cushion in case of future interest rate volatility.
  • In choosing a bond investing strategy, consider the role you want bonds to play in your portfolio.
  • Fidelity's research tools and fixed income professionals can help you understand your options in the vast and heterogeneous bond universe.

With US and global stock markets setting so many records in 2025, it may be easy to overlook bonds as 2026 approaches.

Although bonds generally delivered strong positive returns in 2025—with the widely followed Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index returning about 7% for the year as of late November—these returns have paled in comparison with the double-digit gains of many major stock indexes.

Indeed, with the potential for interest rate volatility in the year ahead, some investors may ask, “Why bother with bonds?”

The answer is that high-quality bonds are likely to continue serving key portfolio-management roles in the new year: diversification, regular income, tax efficiency, and capital preservation. As Robin Foley, head of fixed income at Fidelity, says, "Fixed income remains a valuable choice in a diversified portfolio, especially if investors seek liquidity and risk-adjusted returns."

Reasons for optimism

One potential reason why fixed income may continue to look attractive in 2026 is the relatively high levels of yield many bonds still offer. Although the Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate by nearly 2 percentage points in the past year and a half, rates on intermediate and longer-term bonds have generally remained high. (The Fed only controls very short-term interest rates; market forces of supply and demand drive longer-term rates, though the Fed’s actions can influence these rates.)

After the prolonged period of very low rates that followed the Global Financial Crisis, US Treasury rates are now approximately at “fair value” and could present an attractive entry point, according to Dirk Hofschire, managing director of research on Fidelity’s Asset Allocation Research Team (AART).

Those relatively high starting yields can add to bonds’ total returns and help provide a cushion against interest rate volatility.

Image of quote from article: The factors that are typically most important in driving intermediate- and long-term bond rates are expectations for future economic growth and inflation.

The term premium returns

One significant force driving bond markets in 2026 could be the relationship between short-term interest rates and long-term interest rates. After an unusual period in which short-term bonds yielded more than longer-term ones, the return of the “term premium” (meaning, the additional yield investors demand in exchange for lending money for longer periods of time) helped fuel bond price volatility in 2025. While that volatility was unpleasant for some investors, it may be a sign that the bond market is returning to more normal dynamics, in which long-term yields are higher than short-term yields.

A key question for 2026 is where rates on intermediate- and longer-term bonds go next. The market generally expects that further rate cuts from the Fed could be on the table, which could continue to bring down rates on short-term fixed income investments. But the factors that are typically most important in driving intermediate- and long-term bond rates are expectations for future economic growth and for inflation, says Jake Weinstein, senior vice president on Fidelity’s AART. “If the US sees a growth boom or if inflation remains sticky, longer-term interest rates could go higher,” he says.

Whether that uncertainty around bond rates is an opportunity or a risk may depend on the amount of money you have to invest, your needs for income, your time horizon, and the management approach you choose. David DeBiase who co-manages Fidelity® Intermediate Bond Fund (), says in the year ahead, a well-constructed actively managed portfolio of bonds with intermediate maturities may offer not only the familiar benefits of bonds but also the potential for capital appreciation and inflation-beating returns.

Debt, inflation, and interest rates

Another key question for the year ahead is whether or how the US federal government’s growing debt burden may impact the bond market.

As the federal government becomes more deeply indebted, it must issue more bonds—increasing the supply of government debt in the market. Without a commensurate rise in demand from buyers, that additional supply could drive yields up and prices down on government bonds.

An overlapping issue is the question of Fed independence. Some investors speculate that the Fed might need to cut interest rates to help the federal government afford its debts. But if the Fed were to lower the federal funds rate below a level justified by the economic data, it could stoke investor fears about long-term inflation and the Fed’s credibility in fighting inflation. These fears could result in lower prices and higher rates on long-term government bonds, as investors demand higher yield to compensate for the risk of higher future inflation.

In navigating this complex and changing environment, investors may need to consider what they want from the bonds in their portfolios and which corners of the vast investable universe of fixed income they want exposure to. With this in mind, let’s look at the needs of 4 hypothetical investors and bond investing ideas that may help meet those needs in the year ahead.

Decorative illustration.

1. The diversifier

You recognize that you need the growth and inflation-hedging potential offered by stocks. You also want a counterweight to balance your portfolio against the inevitability of stock pullbacks.

The idea: Diversify your portfolio with an actively managed investment-grade bond mutual fund or ETF.

Rationale: Fidelity's bond managers believe that the combination of high current yields plus the potential for further rate cuts may create attractive total return opportunity in the year ahead. “The all-important starting yields are still relatively high and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue reducing interest rates, just as investors may be starting to see some vulnerability in the credit markets," say Michael Plage, who co-manages Fidelity® Investment Grade Bond Fund () and Fidelity® Total Bond Fund (). "That’s the combination I’ve been waiting for.”

Active management may help maximize diversification within a bond fund or ETF, helping to offer more balance against stock-market volatility, even if inflation persists. In 2026, Fidelity bond managers are keeping their eyes on the relationship between stock prices and bond prices. They have historically moved in opposite directions, with bonds typically rising when stocks have fallen—helping to cushion portfolios in a downturn—though this inverse relationship has eroded in recent years. Institutional Portfolio Manager Beau Coash believes that relationship may normalize further in the year ahead. “I still believe bonds can help provide portfolio stability and may help mitigate risks during extreme stock market downturns,” he says. “I expect the inverse-correlation benefit of owning bonds to hold up in most scenarios, with the exception of extreme pickups in inflation, or if rates were to rise to compensate for the higher issuance of government debt in order to finance budget deficits.”

Ideas to consider: Buying shares of an actively managed bond mutual fund or ETF is an easy way to add bond exposure to your portfolio. Bond funds hold a wide range of individual bonds, which makes them an efficient way to diversify your holdings even with a small investment. An actively managed fund also gives you the benefits of professional research.

Not all bond funds are actively managed. Investors who seek bond exposure in a fund can also choose among exchange-traded and index funds that seek to track bond market indexes such as the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index.

Decorative illustration.

2. The income planner

You need to take withdrawals from your portfolio to meet required minimum distributions (RMDs), discretionary expenses in retirement, or something else, and you’d prefer only to spend your portfolio’s income.

The idea: Individual investment-grade bonds issued by corporations and federal, state, and local governments may offer attractive and predictable yields, plus low risk of default.

Rationale: Interest rates are still relatively high on individual high-quality bonds, potentially enabling those who want to metaphorically “clip coupons” to earn reliable income, plan the timing of their bonds’ maturities to preserve the value of their portfolios, and enjoy peace of mind when stocks turn volatile.

If you have several hundred thousand dollars to invest, you may be able to construct a portfolio of high-quality, low-risk bonds with reliable yields that are higher than many other fixed income or short-term cash investments. And if you are able to hold these bonds until maturity you may be relatively unbothered by price swings in the broader bond market as interest rates continue to move around, because your bonds will mature at their full face values.

Ideas to consider: Unlike investing in a fund, you can choose specific bonds and hold them until they mature. One benefit of this strategy is “precision,” according to Richard Carter, vice president of fixed income strategy at Fidelity.

“You can select the specific bonds and calculate their specific coupons and maturities in order to meet your expected cash flow needs,” he says. If you are buying individual bonds, Fidelity suggests you consider spreading investment dollars across multiple bond issuers.

A popular way to hold individual bonds is by building a portfolio of bonds with various maturities. This is called a bond ladder. Ladders can help create predictable streams of income, reduce exposure to volatile stocks, and manage some potential risks from changing interest rates.

Fidelity offers more than 250,000 bonds, including US Treasury, corporate, and municipal bonds. Most have mid- to­ high-quality credit ratings that could be appropriate for a bond ladder.

Tools and resources for investors looking for individual bonds include screeners to help you find available bonds, tools to build a bond ladderLog In Required , alerts to let you know when your bonds are maturing, and Fidelity's Fixed Income DashboardLog In Required  to help you understand your bond portfolio.

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3. The tax cutter

Your stock portfolio may be producing significant income from capital gains and dividends, but it may feel like a lot of that income goes straight to taxes. You would like to find a way to earn tax-free or tax-advantaged income instead.

The idea: Municipal bonds, Treasury bonds, and bond separately managed accounts (SMAs) all may offer the potential for attractive levels of reliable income with tax advantages.

Rationale: Greater certainty about federal tax rates—thanks in part to the passage of tax legislation in 2025—has reduced demand for munis. (The interest income munis pay is generally free from federal income tax, a feature that is relatively more attractive when tax rates are higher.) Meanwhile, government entities large and small have been issuing new debt at the fastest pace in years. This combination of increased supply and moderating demand has helped push muni yields higher, creating a potentially more favorable entry point for investors. The opportunity to access attractive tax-advantaged yields with lower starting valuations may make this a good time for tax-sensitive investors to consider munis.

Adding US Treasury bonds to your portfolio may also help you at tax time, especially if you live in a high tax state. The interest income that Treasurys pay is exempt from state and local income taxes, though it is subject to federal income tax.

Ideas to consider: You can get exposure to municipal and Treasury bonds by investing in mutual funds and ETFs, or by buying individual bonds. Newly issued Treasury bonds are offered at regularly scheduled auctions held by the Treasury. The price you pay—and the yield you receive—of a new­-issue Treasury bond reflects what others are paying at the auction and may differ slightly from what you may have expected to pay and receive. Fidelity offers regular access to newly issued municipal bonds with no separate transaction fees. Another option is to buy existing bonds in the secondary market. Learn more about how to choose between individual bonds and bond funds.

If you want to combine ownership of individual bonds with tax-sensitive professional management, you can consider a separately managed account (SMA). SMAs combine the professional management of a mutual fund with some of the customization opportunities of doing it yourself. In an SMA, you invest directly in the individual bonds, but your holdings are managed by professionals.

Whichever approach you choose, keep in mind that tax-free interest is only a benefit if your bonds are held in a taxable account, rather than an IRA.

Decorative illustration.

4. The inflation fighter

You know that inflation is bad news for most types of bonds that pay a fixed coupon. When inflation picks up and prices rise, the purchasing power of those interest payments decreases. Higher inflation expectations can also push up interest rates—causing traditional bonds to fall in price.

Idea: US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are Treasury-issued bonds with principal values that rise in line with inflation. Because the interest they pay is tied to that principal value, the dollar amount of their interest payments rises with inflation as well. They are available in 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year maturities.

Rationale: Inflation has come down significantly since its peak in 2022, but could remain elevated. High federal deficits also may increase the risk of inflationary policies or inflation surprises in the future. TIPS are designed to help protect against inflation, but they can still lose value in the short term—especially if inflation spikes suddenly or proves persistent enough to push market interest rates higher. Historically, TIPS have provided strong hedging potential against unexpected increases in inflation. They may also provide meaningful diversification benefits when added to a portfolio of traditional fixed-coupon bonds.

Ideas to consider: You can buy TIPS directly from the US government at auctions throughout the year and at Fidelity.com. You can also buy and sell individual TIPS with various maturities and prices from other investors in the secondary market.

Compared with stocks, the investable universe of bonds is vast and relatively opaque, and can seem challenging to navigate. Fidelity’s specialists in fixed income can help, providing you with strategies, analysis, and access to a wide selection of bonds and CDs. If you prefer to do it yourself, Fidelity.com makes it easy to research, buy, and sell individual bonds, just like buying stocks.

More on the funds mentioned above

Investors can learn more about the mutual funds mentioned in this article, including fund objectives and most recent complete holdings, by visiting the fund summary pages on Fidelity.com:

  • Fidelity® Intermediate Bond Fund ()
  • Fidelity® Investment Grade Bond Fund ()
  • Fidelity® Total Bond Fund ()

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Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

In general, the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk, liquidity risk, call risk, and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so holding them until maturity to avoid losses caused by price volatility is not possible. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Lower yields - Treasury securities typically pay less interest than other securities in exchange for lower default or credit risk.

Interest rate risk - Treasuries are susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates, with the degree of volatility increasing with the amount of time until maturity. As rates rise, prices will typically decline.

Call risk - Some Treasury securities carry call provisions that allow the bonds to be retired prior to stated maturity. This typically occurs when rates fall.

Inflation risk - With relatively low yields, income produced by Treasuries may be lower than the rate of inflation. This does not apply to TIPS, which are inflation protected.

Credit or default risk - Investors need to be aware that all bonds have the risk of default. Investors should monitor current events, as well as the ratio of national debt to gross domestic product, Treasury yields, credit ratings, and the weaknesses of the dollar for signs that default risk may be rising.

Interest rate risk - Like all fixed income securities, the market prices of municipal bonds are susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates. If interest rates rise, market prices of existing bonds will decline, despite the lack of change in both the coupon rate and maturity. Bonds with longer maturities are generally more susceptible to changes in interest rates than bonds with shorter maturities.
Call risk - Many municipal bonds carry provisions that allow the issuer to call or redeem the bond prior to the actual maturity date. An issuer will typically call bonds when prevailing interest rates drop, making reinvestment less desirable for the holder. Some municipal bonds, including housing bonds and certificates of participation (COPs), may be callable at any time regardless of the stated call features. In some cases, bond issuers will call bonds to modify an indenture through a new offering. Investors should also be aware of special or extraordinary redemption provisions. These are provisions that give a bond issuer the right to call the bonds due to a one-time occurrence, such as a natural disaster, interruption to a revenue source, unexpended bond proceed, or cancelled projects.
Liquidity risk - The vast majority of municipal bonds are not traded on a regular basis; therefore, the market for a specific municipal bond may not be particularly liquid. This can be attributed to the large number of municipal issuers and variety of securities. With limited exceptions for some large more actively traded issues, the chances of finding a specific municipal bond in the secondary market at any given time are relatively small. According to the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB), it is much more common to identify basic characteristics of a municipal bond in which an investor is interested in investing (e.g., state, creditworthiness, maturity range, interest rate, or yield, market sector, etc.) and then to make a choice from a set of municipal securities that meet those criteria. Selling prior to maturity can present a challenge for municipal bond investors due to the fragmented and thinly traded nature of the market.
Revenue sources risk - With revenue bonds, the interest and principal are dependent on the revenues paid by users of a facility or service, or other dedicated revenues including those from special taxes. In general, the consumer spending that provides the funding or income stream for revenue bond issuers may be more vulnerable to changes in consumer tastes or a general economic downturn than the income stream for general obligation bond issuers. "Essentiality" is a key investor consideration for a project financed with revenue bonds. For example, a facility that delivers fundamental or essential services, such as water and sewer, may be more likely to have dependable revenues through multiple economic cycles. When evaluating revenue bonds, it is important to consider:
The overall economic health of the region or customer base and the impact it might have on the entity's ability to sustain its revenues.
The exact source of the revenues that will service and repay the debt. Is the bond solely dependent upon one source of revenue or is a larger entity standing behind the issue?
The entity's track record of operational effectiveness through multiple economic cycles. Is there a track-record of solid growth attracting more customers or taxpayers from more diverse sources?
The legal provisions that may be in place to protect the bondholder, such as rate covenants and debt service reserve funds.
The competence of financial management of the entity. Has its credit rating been maintained or strengthened over a period of time? How has it weathered previous economic downturns? How much debt does it have? How much of its cash flow is committed to paying down debt vs. investing in new projects or supporting services of value for the community?
Credit and default risk - Credit risk is the risk that the issuer will default or be unable to make required principal or interest payments. Despite the fact that many municipal bonds have high credit ratings, there is a risk of default in any bond investment.
Tax risks - Because tax-exempt interest generated by municipal bonds is usually more beneficial for investors in higher tax brackets, municipal bonds may not be appropriate for all investors, particularly those in lower tax brackets. In addition, if you are subject to the federal alternative minimum tax (AMT), the interest income generated by certain municipal bonds (mainly private activity bonds) may be taxable.
Inflation risks - with all bonds, investors run the risk that inflation will diminish the purchasing power of a municipal bond's principal and interest income.
Repudiation risk - There can be no assurance that bonds validly issued will not be partially or totally repudiated by the issuing state or municipality, should that be deemed reasonable and necessary to serve other important public purposes.
Other risks - Not all risks can be quantified in a bond's prospectus or offering circular. A type of risk called "special event risk," lawsuits or significant legal changes, another community's public works project, unusual weather, an economic downturn, or other events could impact the issuer's ability to meet their financial commitments.

The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index measures the performance of the total US investment-grade bond market, and includes investment-grade US Treasury bonds, government-related bonds, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed pass-through securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and asset-backed securities that are publicly offered for sale in the US.

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