M&A update

After a record-setting year in 2021, M&A activity has been declining (see Number and value of M&A deals globally chart).¹ Thus far in 2024, the trend of the past few years has continued.

Higher interest rates have made dealmaking more expensive relative to prior years. Other factors, like some economic uncertainty and regulatory scrutiny, have contributed to the slowdown. But with rates expected to come down this year and in 2025, that's a big factor that could help prime M&A activity for a pickup.

M&A activity

The level of M&A activity can be cyclical, tending to be somewhat correlated to the economic environment—factors like GDP growth, corporate earnings growth, interest rates, tax policy, and the regulatory environment. The 10 largest completed deals year to date are:¹

• Home Depot's $18 billion acquisition of SRS Distribution
• EQT's $14 billion acquisition of Equitrans Midstream
• Johnson & Johnson's $12 billion acquisition of Shockwave Medical
• NexPoint Real Estate's $11 billion acquisition of Single Family Property
• Stone Point Capital's $10 billion acquisition of Truist Insurance
• Blackstone's $10 billion acquisition of Tricon Residential
• Blackstone's $9 billion acquisition of Apartment Income REIT
• Sunoco's $7 billion acquisition of NuStar
• Renesas Electronics' $6 billion acquisition of Altium
• Infinity Management's $5 billion acquisition of Yandex IPJSC

M&A performance

So who benefits from M&A? While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, several historical studies have shown that owning stocks of takeover targets (prior to a deal announcement) has generally been lucrative 1 and 3 years after a deal announcement, on average.² That has not typically been the case for shareholders of acquiring firms.

One meta-analysis² of M&A trends found that these deals have tended to benefit the target company's shareholders significantly in the short run (less than 1 year). For the company being acquired, the final acquisition price has historically been a 30% premium above the stock's pre-announcement price, on average. On the other hand, the acquirer's stock price has historically declined 1% to 3%, on average, 3 years after the deal's announcement. Obviously, the range of returns can vary widely on a deal-by-deal basis.

Another study found that acquiring companies experienced a 4.3% absolute price decline, on average, in the 3 years after an acquisition, with 61% of these companies underperforming industry competitors.³ These studies have suggested that many underperforming acquiring firms have been unable to capture synergies that were expected prior to the deal's announcement.

It goes without saying that each M&A transaction is unique, subsequent stock performance of the acquirer and target could differ (perhaps significantly) from the historical averages of similar M&A deals, and each deal should be evaluated on its own merit. With that said, investors who own shares of either the acquiring or target company should still be prepared for their stock prices to become potentially volatile after a deal is announced.

One reason for a potential increase in volatility is the additional risks created by the deal—including uncertainty about where the stock price will end up if the deal closes, uncertainty about whether regulators will block the deal, or the risk that the target company's shareholders will reject the proposal.

Acquirer's stock: What to look for

If you own the stock of a company that has offered to buy another company, you may want to do some research to determine if the combined company still supports your reasons for owning the stock. Data from various studies suggests that there are 4 primary characteristics of M&A deals that tend to create value for shareholders (i.e., earnings growth that translates into stock price appreciation) of the acquiring company over the long run:²

• Acquirer's earnings and share price growth rate are above their industry average for the 3 years preceding an acquisition. You can find this information on Fidelity.com on a company's snapshot page.
• The premium paid by the acquirer is relatively low versus comparable deals. You may be able to find the premium paid for comparable deals via a financial data provider, Fidelity's news tab search function, or an internet search.
• The number of bidding companies is "low." Being the lone bidder is optimal for the acquirer's shareholders, with one obvious reason being avoiding a bidding war that might drive up the acquisition price.
• The market's initial reaction is positive. Some studies suggest this can be measured by the acquirer's stock price not closing lower in the 10 trading days after the deal is announced.²

All else equal, acquiring companies (and their associated acquisition processes) that exhibit these 4 traits have historically outperformed the stocks of acquirers that didn't exhibit these traits, on average. Additionally, when a proposal is announced, there are several questions you might consider to help evaluate it. These include:

• Will the deal create synergies (i.e., will the company be worth more after the combination, perhaps due to cost reductions or revenue enhancements)?
• Will the deal help the company achieve growth?
• Will the deal help the company gain market share and/or pricing power?
• Will the deal help the company access unique capabilities and resources?
• Did the acquirer pay fair value for the target business?

It can be difficult for many investors to evaluate some or all of these factors. If you want help navigating the M&A waters, you may want to consider professionally managed M&A investment products or services. Professional managers have the research capability necessary to evaluate the complexity of these types of deals, and the potential impact on the stocks of the acquirer and/or the target.

If you are looking to do this research on your own, there are tools and resources—including company filings, research reports, and analyst opinions—that can help you evaluate an M&A deal. Much of this research can be found in the Stock Research Center on Fidelity.com.

Target stockholders: What to look for

If you are a shareholder of a publicly traded company that is being targeted for an acquisition in the US, for example, it's important to know that state laws and stock exchange regulations mandate the right to vote on a takeover offer.

In addition to voting on the proposed deal, shareholders of the target company can either continue to hold the stock (up until or all the way through the combined entity post-merger) or decide to sell at some post-announcement price. Recall that, based on historical data, the target company's stock price is likely to have increased from the pre-announcement price. Selling your shares can occur via an auction, tender process, or on the market. Any decision you make should be based on careful analysis, and should align with your specific investment objectives, risk tolerance, and tax situation.

If the deal is completed, the stock price will typically move toward the agreed-upon purchase price by the closing date. However, if the deal falls through, the stock could decline—potentially by a large amount, and perhaps even below the pre-announcement price level (more on this later).

Targeting M&A

In addition to evaluating individual stocks, there are professionally managed funds, known as merger arbitrage funds, which specifically target M&A deals after they are announced. The IQ Merger Arbitrage ETF (), AltShares Merger Arbitrage ETF (), and First Trust Merger Arbitrage ETF () are the largest US-traded ETFs of this kind by net asset value.⁵

Merger arbitrage funds depend heavily on the number of deals available to invest in at a given point in time; many of these funds have relatively high expense ratios, and their performance can be volatile. Among the primary risks of these types of funds is the potential for an announced deal not closing that the fund has invested in.

Despite the risks, merger arbitrage funds have generally grown in size in recent years, based on assets under management. Yet you need to carefully consider the risks of these funds, and if they align with your strategy.

Moreover, FINRA recommends exercising caution in regard to M&A and investing. As noted on FINRA's website, most M&A deals provided little shareholder value, according to research. For all the excitement and headlines surrounding M&A announcements, more often than not M&A deals don't serve acquiring companies as well as executives and shareholders would hope.

M&A investing implications

An M&A announcement is one example of an event that can trigger a reevaluation of your investments. If your strategy involves seeking out high-quality companies trading at attractive valuations, you may end up owning the types of investments that M&A deals tend to involve. The more information you have, the more likely you may be able to manage the potential effect of an M&A deal on your investments.