US economy and stock market analysis: Chart of the week

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Retail sales warning sign?

Nearly 70% of the US economy is consumer spending, which is why monitoring retails sales is such a critical input for the health of the economy. Retail sales fell off a cliff at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In recent months, retail sales recovered their pre-COVID level, however; the pace of growth has slowed substantially. August US retail sales rose a sluggish 0.6% month-over-month. While that is the 3rd straight month of growth, it was just below estimates. Moreover, there is growing concern that the reopen boost may continue to diminish as federal aid ends for the unemployed and struggling businesses.

Source: Strategas, as of September 19, 2020.

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