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Chart of the week

Fidelity Active Investor
– 12/13/2018

At oil's mercy

While there are many other factors that contribute to recessions, the correlation between an economic downturn and oil being expensive in real terms is striking. As the chart shows, there has been a historical correlation when the real price of oil becomes expensive relative to prior years. Oil has traded between $50 and $77 per barrel this year.

Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC. Note: Performance is based on data from 1983 and later; extreme period is denoted by a WTI/Bold reading below 0.05.

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