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Chart Title	Date
Growth stocks on a roll	9/10/2021
Sector winners and losers	9/3/2021
Blip in retail sales amid COVID surge	8/27/2021
Gold drops below support level	8/20/2021
Jobs picture brightens	8/13/2021
Vaccinations slow	8/6/2021
Strong stock dividends	7/30/2021
Younger Americans increasingly confident	7/23/2021
Confidence rises	7/16/2021
Earnings euphoria	7/9/2021
COVID-19 fight continues	7/2/2021
Active off to good start	6/25/2021
Car sales speed up	6/18/2021
A good-looking chart	6/11/2021
While gas prices rise, metals cool	6/4/2021
Corporate lobbying on trade	5/28/2021

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Growth stocks on a roll

Many major stock markets around the world are trading near record highs, despite a myriad of concerns—including Delta variant spillover effects, the August US jobs miss to the downside, and several global central banks beginning to wind down some of their support, to name a few. Meanwhile, the ratio of growth stocks to value stocks is at its highest level since November 2020, as growth stocks have made up a lot of ground compared with their value counterparts over the past 4 months or so.

Source: Bloomberg, as of September 7, 2021.

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Sector winners and losers

Health care, real estate, and technology stocks have been the best-performing sectors since the 10-year US Treasury yield peaked on March 31 of this year at 1.74%. Continuing a multiyear trend, energy has been the worst-performing sector. In fact, every sector has produced positive gains since the most recent yield peak except energy.

Source: Strategas, as of August 27, 2021.

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Blip in retail sales amid COVID surge

Investor sentiment took a hit after the dip in US retail sales last month was revealed. Indeed, retail sales fell 1.1% in July, with auto and auto parts down roughly 3.9%. But if you take a longer view, sales of goods have been way above trend in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Of course, the same can't be said of services spending, and the renewed risks of the Delta variant have the potential to prevent that from bouncing back like retail sales.

Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, as of August 20, 2021.

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Gold drops below support level

Large price movements continue for gold. The precious metal broke above $2,000 per troy ounce last summer, before falling as low as $1,678 in March of this year. After a brief rebound above $1,900, gold recently dropped below $1,770—which is near a significant short-term price level, according to chart analysis. As you can see in the chart below, around $1,765 served as a support (a price level that gold fell to but did not drop below) a couple of times back in June. Gold has moved higher from the recent August low, setting up a potential ceiling test near $1,830. Alternatively, another important price level to watch is the March low in a bearish move.

Source: Bloomberg, as of August 14, 2021.

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Vaccinations slow

Renewed COVID-19 jitters shook markets several times in recent trading sessions, as the Delta variant has increased the number of new confirmed cases and hospitalizations around the world. A fear among investors is that rising positive cases and resulting deaths might disrupt the ongoing global economic reopening and recovery. While the number of vaccinations continues to increase, the pace has slowed substantially. In the US, the daily average of vaccine doses administered has plummeted since the mid-April peak, although there was a small uptick recently in the wake of the Delta variant spike.

Source: Strategas, as of August 1, 2021.

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Strong stock dividends

While down from the near-term high, dividend income relative to government bonds remains relatively high. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks with dividend yields greater than the 10-year US Treasury yield is 53%, as of mid-July. A combination of still relatively low interest rates and persistently strong earnings that have boosted many companies’ ability to pay out healthy dividends has helped stock income compete with bond income.

Source: Strategas, as of July 23, 2021.

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Younger Americans increasingly confident

The conventional wisdom that younger Americans are struggling financially to a greater extent than their older counterparts is not reflected in some consumer confidence data. For much of the past year, consumer confidence appears to have broadly aligned across age groups, according to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. More recently, confidence among younger Americans (under 35) has accelerated faster than other age groups (35-54 and 55+) during the pandemic recovery. Of course, this is just one data point that doesn’t reflect the reality of all Americans. However, consumer confidence for Americans under age 35, according to this survey, is nearly at levels reached during the dot.com era, and is within striking distance of the all-time high set in September 2019.

Source: The Conference Board, as of July 20, 2021.

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Confidence rises

Among the generally positive economic data points released in recent months was the last Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report. While many individuals (and businesses) have not fully recovered from the pandemic, this report shows that US consumer confidence is broadly reapproaching near-term highs. Given that the US economy is roughly two-thirds consumer spending, the positive trend in this metric supports an optimistic outlook.

Source: The Conference Board, as of June 30, 2021. Seasonally adjusted so that 1985 = 100.

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Earnings euphoria

In another sign of the ongoing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the trailing 12-month EPS estimate for US stocks is expected to surpass pre-COVID levels for the first time. At the end of 2019, the S&P 500 trailing 12-month EPS was nearly $165. Then, the pandemic slashed earnings roughly 14% for the S&P 500 by the near-term bottom in the second half of 2020. The Q2 2021 estimate for the S&P 500 stands at $175.31, with substantially higher estimates for subsequent quarters.

Source: Strategas, Refinitiv, as of July 9, 2021.

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COVID-19 fight continues

New confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide continue to trend in the right direction, since the resurgence in early spring. Certain regions, such as the US, are showing even more positive trends. While variants of the virus present an ongoing concern and the slow rollout of vaccination efforts in many parts of the world remains troubling, markets may continue to ride this positive momentum wave, if this trend persists.

Source: FactSet, as of June 27, 2021.

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Active off to good start

During the first 5 months of 2021, large-cap core active portfolio managers have had a strong year thus far. 65% of this group beat the S&P 500, the highest percentage since 2005. Of course, the year isn't over yet. But prior to this year, the percentage of large-cap core active portfolio managers that outperformed the S&P 500 for the full year has been well below 50% since the financial crisis.

Source: Strategas, as of June 17, 2021.

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Car sales speed up

After plateauing in the early 2010s, US vehicle sales had been in a multi-year downtrend, punctuated by a plunge at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic. But over the past year, US vehicle sales have been gaining speed, and are now close to pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, reduced inventory and some key auto part shortages have pushed car prices up—the average new car price jumped 12% to $38,255 in May, according to JD Power—contributing to an overall increase in consumer prices. These factors, in addition to the global economy adding more jobs and the travel industry slowly gaining steam, are contributing to an interesting dynamic for the auto industry.

Source: FactSet, as of June 6, 2021.

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A good-looking chart

The chart below reveals how stocks—as measured by the S&P 500—have performed well in years where the index has gained between 10% and 15% through the first 5 months of the year. Indeed, since 1950 the S&P 500 has added at least 6% in the 10 instances where this has occurred. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but this could portend positively for investors for the remainder of 2021.

Source: Bloomberg, as of June 5, 2021.

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While gas prices rise, metals cool

The US national average gas price has climbed above $3 per gallon on average in the US for the first time since 2014, causing some consternation. And while commodity prices have broadly been rising during the pandemic, other commodities—such as metals—have been trending lower over the past several weeks. The recent decline in prices for metals like steel rebar, iron ore, and copper has been in response, in large part, to China (the world's largest consumer of industrial metals) attempting to help clamp down on surging prices by pledging to manage stockpiles, reinforce inspections on spot and futures markets, and shut down domestic mills that price gouge or collude.

Source: Bloomberg, as of May 30, 2021.

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Corporate lobbying on trade

Before COVID-19 struck, trade was one of the dominant factors moving markets. Obviously, the pandemic pushed everything else to the background, but trade has not faded entirely from the landscape—particularly from the perspective of corporations. US companies remain concerned about trade and tariffs, especially in regard to China. The chart below shows the percentage of S&P 500 companies lobbying on trade issues in Q1 of 2021 were greatest for general trade issues and supply chain issues. Concerns over the latter may have been exacerbated by COVID-19, which highlighted supply chain vulnerabilities and US reliance on foreign suppliers.

Source: Strategas, as of May 23, 2021.