Robust job market fuels record-breaking holiday shopping season
Let’s unwrap things…
- Recent US job market data remains positive. Weekly jobless claims have hovered near historic lows indicating minimal corporate layoffs.1 US businesses added 227,000 jobs in November, marking a sizable increase from the previous month.2 External challenges such as hurricanes and labor strikes likely impacted October's slower growth.
- In fact, US online spending during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend was 8% higher than last year. Cyber Monday alone set a record as the biggest online shopping day of all time.3 A healthy job market may further support consumer spending and economic growth.
- A recent survey of business managers revealed encouraging results for companies across industries. Specifically, services-related companies are growing as consumers spend on experiences and dining out.4 Despite subdued manufacturing growth,5 a rise in new orders suggests a potentially brighter outlook. An increase in new orders is another indicator of economic health and growth, suggesting that businesses and consumers are confident and spending more.
- Meanwhile, bond markets are signaling another interest rate cut on December 18.6 What lies ahead in 2025 remains uncertain. Recent statements from Federal Reserve governors suggest they are taking a measured, data-driven approach to additional rate cuts. That means there will be a closer eye on jobs, inflation, and the pace of economic growth in the coming months.
Group Leader Fixed Income, Strategic Advisers LLC
"While the path of future Fed cuts is uncertain, I believe this remains one of the more exciting times to be a bond investor. That's because most bond yields these days are at or near the highest levels they have been in over a decade.7 Generally speaking, higher interest rates can provide a boost to future returns."
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