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Market Roundup: December 9, 2024

Robust job market fuels record-breaking holiday shopping season

Let’s unwrap things…

  • Recent US job market data remains positive. Weekly jobless claims have hovered near historic lows indicating minimal corporate layoffs.1 US businesses added 227,000 jobs in November, marking a sizable increase from the previous month.2 External challenges such as hurricanes and labor strikes likely impacted October's slower growth.

  • In fact, US online spending during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend was 8% higher than last year. Cyber Monday alone set a record as the biggest online shopping day of all time.3 A healthy job market may further support consumer spending and economic growth.

  • A recent survey of business managers revealed encouraging results for companies across industries. Specifically, services-related companies are growing as consumers spend on experiences and dining out.4 Despite subdued manufacturing growth,5 a rise in new orders suggests a potentially brighter outlook. An increase in new orders is another indicator of economic health and growth, suggesting that businesses and consumers are confident and spending more.

  • Meanwhile, bond markets are signaling another interest rate cut on December 18.6 What lies ahead in 2025 remains uncertain. Recent statements from Federal Reserve governors suggest they are taking a measured, data-driven approach to additional rate cuts. That means there will be a closer eye on jobs, inflation, and the pace of economic growth in the coming months.
Christopher Heavey

Group Leader Fixed Income, Strategic Advisers LLC


"While the path of future Fed cuts is uncertain, I believe this remains one of the more exciting times to be a bond investor. That's because most bond yields these days are at or near the highest levels they have been in over a decade.7 Generally speaking, higher interest rates can provide a boost to future returns."

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More to explore

1. US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims, released December 4, 2024. 2. US Department of Labor, employment situation, released December 5, 2024 3. Adobe Analytics, data released December 3, 2024 4. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index, released December 4, 2024 5. ISM Manufacturing Index, released December 2, 2024. 6. Based on fed funds futures, as of December 5, 2024. 7. Based on Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, as of December 4, 2024.

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI) is a composite index calculated as an indicator of the overall economic condition for the non-manufacturing sector. The ISM Manufacturing Index, also known as the purchasing managers' index (PMI), is a monthly indicator of U.S. economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers at more than 300 manufacturing firms. It is considered to be a key indicator of the state of the U.S. economy. Formally called the Manufacturing ISM Report on Business, the survey is conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage-back securities (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), asset-backed securities and collateralized mortgage-backed securities (agency and non-agency). The views expressed in the foregoing commentary were prepared by Strategic Advisers LLC (Strategic Advisers), based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Unless otherwise noted, the opinions provided are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Fidelity Investments. This commentary is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute a current or past recommendation, investment advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. The information and opinions presented are current only as of the date of writing, without regard to the date on which you may access this information. All opinions and estimates are subject to change at any time without notice.

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