The Consumer Price Index data for June showed core and headline inflation up slightly, reflecting higher gasoline prices since April despite a cautious consumer amid some increased signs of economic uncertainty.
More persistent categories of inflation remain robust, with housing inflation still rising at nearly 4% year over year and services inflation steady at around 3.8%.
Tariffs have not yet led to clear and meaningful cost pass-through to consumers, with goods inflation up moderately overall. It’s possible that the impact of tariffs could become more noticeable in the next few months.
The Fidelity Asset Allocation Research (AART) team’s estimate of the US effective tariff rate has fallen to 18%, down from 27% in April. This still reflects a much higher potential average US tariff rate than what has been seen since the 1930s.
Potential tariff scenarios
High US tariff rates pose a stagflationary risk to the US economy. The more-pessimistic scenario analyzed assumes that all announced US tariffs to date are implemented and remain for a prolonged duration. If this were to happen, the Asset Allocation Research Team estimates a 1% annual hit to US gross domestic product and a 1.3% increase to the inflation rate.
The team also considered more optimistic scenarios that involved a lower total US effective tariff rate, with milder impacts on growth and inflation.
Tariff-related uncertainty appears likely to continue
The US tariff pause, originally set to expire on July 9, 2025, has been extended until August 1, 2025, which may accelerate the news cycle as it relates to international trade in the third quarter.
The Trump administration has indicated that trade negotiations are ongoing with 18 of the largest US trading partners, which account for more than 90% of US international trade.
On Monday, July 7, the Trump administration sent letters to 14 countries outlining new tariff rates. While most of these rates were similar to those established on April 2, the administration has expressed a willingness to negotiate. To date, few agreements have materialized, as they require complex negotiations.
Update to inflation outlook
The AART team’s forecast for headline inflation over the next year has softened slightly on dips in consumer confidence but remains just above 3% into early 2026. The market largely agrees with this view of inflation, with inflation swaps pricing in 3% inflation over the next 12 months.
As for the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—core personal consumption expenditures (PCE)—there also appears to be an upward inflationary trajectory. The AART team expects core PCE to rise to 3% by the end of the third quarter of 2025, then to stabilize into 2026.
Given this backdrop, it may be challenging for the US Federal Reserve to cut rates in the third quarter. Absent a weaker job market or unexpected disinflation, this may also be the case in the fourth quarter.
Seasonal factors in play
It is a well-known feature of inflation that, historically, price increases have tended to be much higher earlier in the year before fading toward year’s end. Therefore, seasonal adjustments often have reduced actual readings early in the year while adding to them late in the year.
What does this mean for inflation readings? Assuming inflation returns to a more typical seasonal pattern than that experienced during the recent inflationary surge, the seasonal adjustments in the first half of the year may be too large, and adjustments in the second half of the year could be too small. Therefore, the seasonally adjusted figures would have a downward bias in the first half (particularly in the second quarter) and an upward bias in the second half (particularly in the third quarter).
What about consumer prices?
Goods inflation has moderated since 2023 after falling steeply from a peak in late 2021. It rose slightly in the first quarter before settling back down. It rose again in June.
Purchasing managers of manufactured goods have indicated rising price pressures in recent months, which has historically been a leading indicator of higher goods inflation. Several goods categories heavily reliant on imports, including footwear, furniture and bedding, and apparel, rose in June from the previous month.
Investor considerations
Core inflation above the Fed’s target has contributed to an environment of positive correlations between US stocks and US Treasury bonds in recent years, with implications for asset class diversification. Over the past 20 years, subdued and relatively stable US core inflation facilitated an environment of negative correlations between US stocks and Treasury bonds, leading to strong portfolio diversification. The current environment is more akin to prior periods of high inflation and positive stock-bond correlations.
Diversified portfolios that incorporate inflation protection may help investors better manage their finances in periods of market volatility and rising stock-bond correlations.
Inflation-resistant assets, including commodities and commodity-producer stocks, can help hedge against high and rising inflation while also providing potential for capital appreciation in a strong growth environment. Inflation-hedging fixed income assets, such as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), historically have provided better inflation diversification than investment-grade nominal bonds.