Money has been flooding into short-duration bond investments, with investors searching for more yield than savings accounts or money market funds may offer, or reacting to a fear of rising interest rates. Assets in short-term bond and ultrashort bond mutual funds more than quadrupled from 2006 to 2015, growing to more than $400 billion.
"Short duration strategies may be appealing in this environment, but even among short duration strategies there are a lot of difference, so you need to choose carefully," says Rob Galusza, manager of Fidelity® Conservative Income Bond Fund (FCONX).
Choosing the right short duration strategy or fund requires you to understand your own personal investment goals and financial needs, and how duration and credit quality might play out in different market conditions. Duration is a measure of interest rate risk.1 (Read: "Duration: Understanding the relationship between bond prices and interest rates.")
The short-duration universe
When compared with long-duration bond funds of a similar credit quality, short-duration choices generally indicate less sensitivity to rising rates and, all else being equal, usually lower yields. These differences in rate sensitivity and yield can also occur within the range of short-duration products on the market. For example, the Morningstar ultrashort bond fund category has an average duration of a year or less. On the other end of the spectrum are short-term bond funds offering durations up to 3.5 years.
If interest rates rise within a short period of time, shorter-duration bonds may deliver lower price volatility relative to longer-duration bonds. When it comes to credit quality, improving credit conditions may favor higher-yielding, lower-quality bonds; likewise, in worsening credit conditions, high-yield debt might underperform higher-quality issuers.
Factors to consider
When deciding which type of short-duration investment you want, the factors are pretty much the same ones you would consider for any investment—your personal situation, your overall asset allocation, and your market view.
Weigh your goals. How soon will you need the money, and how much volatility or risk of loss can you tolerate? The less willing you are to risk losses, or the sooner you may need the money, the more you may want to think about conservative, short-duration, high-credit-quality options.
Consider your market outlook. If you expect rates to stay low for a long time, you may want to consider longer-duration options. If you think rates may rise, you might want to look at the shorter-duration end of the spectrum.
Assess your outlook for credit risk. In recent years, defaults have been low and corporate debt has performed well. If you think these trends will continue, that might argue for a high-yield short-duration bond strategy. But if you think conditions might turn, you might want to stick with higher-credit-quality bond funds.
Think about inflation. Inflation has been tame in recent years, but it does pose a risk, particularly to the most conservative short-duration strategies. Inflation can eat into the value of bond returns, and that risk could affect the lowest-yielding options the most. So, if you think inflation will rise, you may want to consider more aggressive, higher-yielding options within the short-duration category or shorter-maturity TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities).
|Different short-duration options to consider|
|Fund||Conservative ultrashort bond||Short-term bond||Limited term government||Limited term corporate||High yield short duration|
|Duration2||0.39 years||1.88 years||2.68 years||2.72 years||2.30 years|
|Source: FMR. Data as of December 31, 2015. See footnotes for indexes used.|
Different strokes for different folks
To bring these choices to life, let’s look at three hypothetical investors who are considering short-duration funds for distinctive reasons. These simplified examples look at credit quality, yield, and duration. You will also want to consider cost, performance, transaction costs, and other criteria when making a decision. In addition, you might want to consider owning individual bonds, a bond or CD ladder, or other options along with bond funds. (To learn more about the role of individual securities, read, “Bonds vs. bond funds.”)
1. Sonia wants to boost her retirement income.
Sonia is a retiree who holds about three years of expense money in cash in a savings account that pays out 0.03% interest. She has been frustrated by low yields over recent years. While she is risk averse and knows she will need that money in the intermediate term, she is willing to explore other options to increase income, so long as she remains comfortable with the amount of risk it adds.
She decides to keep a third of her expense money in cash, to cover any expenses over the next year. She puts the rest of her cash in a very conservative, investment-grade short-duration bond fund with a duration of just 0.39 years. While the yield is still just 0.40%, it’s a meaningful increase from the yield on her savings account. And with high credit quality and low duration, it’s an amount of risk she thinks she can live with.
2. Hank wants to shift his asset mix.
Hank is 60 years old and is saving for a retirement that will begin in five years. He has an investment mix designed for growth, which includes 25% that is invested in long-duration bonds and 5% that is invested in cash.
He has a strong point of view that the economy will accelerate and that interest rates and inflation will rise in the coming years. He is worried that the rising rates he expects will hurt the performance of the fixed income portion of his portfolio, and he wants to explore ways to limit the impact while maintaining an allocation to fixed income within his overall investment mix.
He decides to move part of his fixed income and cash holdings to short-duration funds. Because of his outlook for the economy, inflation, and rates, he decides to invest in a mix of investment-grade and high-yield corporate, short-duration bond funds.
By moving a portion of his investments to short duration, he has decreased the overall interest rate risk of his portfolio, while increasing the diversification of his bond holdings by adding a greater variety of maturities and issuers to his investment mix. At the same time, by choosing high-yield and investment-grade corporates, he has tried to earn more yield than other short-term options and accepted the increase in risk.
3. Jacob is saving for a vacation home.
Jacob has been saving in a broadly diversified bond fund to buy a second home to enjoy on vacations and in retirement. He expects to have saved enough in about three years. While he has enjoyed strong performance and income from his fund in the past, he is concerned about the risk of losses in the future and he wants to explore short-duration options that would help insulate his portfolio from the risk of rising rates.
He knows his time frame is about three years and is looking to match it to the duration of a bond fund. So he chooses the limited-term bond fund with a duration of 2.75 years. Another option would be a defined maturity fund with a similar duration. The high credit quality and a duration that matches his timeline makes him feel confident that he can live with the risk involved as his investment timeline comes to an end. As his investment horizon shortens, he may consider continued shifting into shorter-duration choices in order to minimize his risk of loss before the purchase of his second home.
Conservative ultrashort duration: Barclays 3-6 Month U.S. Treasury Bond Index is a market value–weighted index of investment-grade fixed-rate public obligations of the U.S. Treasury with maturities between three and six months.
Short-term bond: Barclays U.S. 1-3 Year Government/Credit Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index for government and corporate fixed-rate debt issues with maturities between one and three years.
Limited term government: Barclays U.S. 1-5 Year Government Bond Index is a market value-weighted index of U.S. Government fixed-rate debt issues with maturities between one and five years.
Limited term corporate: Barclays U.S. 1-5 Year Credit Bond Index is a market value–weighted index of investment–grade corporate fixed–rate debt issues with maturities of one to five years.
High yield short duration: Bank of America Merrill Lynch 1–5 year BB-B U.S. Cash Pay High Yield Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of U.S. dollar- denominated, below-investment grade corporate debt currently in a coupon-paying period that is publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market, with maturities between one and five years. Qualifying securities must have an average rating (based on Moody’s, S&P and Fitch) between BB and B, inclusive. The country of risk of qualifying issuers must be an FX-G10 member, a Western European nation, or a territory of the U.S. or a Western European nation. The FX-G10 includes all Euro members, the U.S., Japan, the U.K., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, Norway and Sweden. In addition, qualifying securities must have at least one year remaining to final maturity, a fixed coupon schedule, and at least $100 million in outstanding face value. Defaulted securities and deferred interest bonds that are not yet accruing a coupon are excluded.
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