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Market Roundup: January 12, 2026

Our pros' weekly take on the markets and economy

With another strong year for the markets behind us, let’s look ahead.

Taking a closer look…

  • Markets delivered another year of strong performance across asset classes in 2025. This is despite bouts of policy uncertainty and market volaility.1
    • US stocks: 17.1%
    • Non-US stocks: 32.6%
    • Investment-grade bonds: 7.3%
  • 2026 is underway. With this positive momentum, the new year begins on a strong footing and offers opportunities to build on recent gains. Here are a few key areas to watch:
    • Geopolitical events: The removal of Venezuelan President Maduro on January 3rd, and the seizure of oil tankers in international waters have been dominating recent headlines. As events unfold, on watch are developments that may have an impact on economies and markets. For a deeper dive into this topic, check out this Viewpoints article.
    • Markets: US Stocks have started the year on a strong note, with the S&P 500 Index hitting an all-time high. While technology stocks ruled 2025, health care and materials stocks have been some of the biggest contributors so far this year, perhaps early signs the rally may be broadening.2
    • Economic data: A flurry of December data releases reinforced the ongoing US economic expansion. Notably, services activity, the largest part of the US economy, hit its highest level in over a year.3
    • Jobs data: The US added 50,000 jobs in December, and unemployment ticked down to 4.4%. While the latest jobs release was slightly short of expectations, it continues to point to a job market that is slowing but not one coming to a halt.4
    • The US Federal Reserve (the Fed): After 3 interest rate cuts in 2025, the Fed will be closely watching employment and inflation data to help inform their decision-making. Although not set in stone, markets currently anticipate 2 additional interest rate cuts in 2026.5
Sameer Yadav

Bond Research Analyst, Strategic Advisers


"For the first time since 2023, investment-grade bonds outperformed cash, returning 7.3% in 2025.6 Tighter credit spreads and 3 Fed rate cuts drove this outperformance, highlighting the importance of diversification across asset classes."

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1. US stocks are represented by the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, International Stocks are represented by the MSCI All Country World ex US Index (Net MA Tax), and Investment-grade Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. 2. Health care and materials stocks based on MSCI USA Health Care Index and MSCI USA Materials Index. 3. Bloomberg, The Institute for Supply Management data, released January 7, 2026. 4. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jobs Report, released January 8, 2026. 5. Bloomberg Federal Funds Futures, as of January 9, 2026. 6. Investment-grade bonds are represented by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, Cash is represented by the Bloomberg US 3 Month Treasury Bellwether Index, calendar year returns, December 31, 2023, to December 31, 2025. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

 Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index is an unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index of over 5,000 U.S. equity securities which contains all actively traded common stocks with readily available price data. The MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) ex USA Index is a market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the investable equity market performance for global investors of large and mid-cap stocks in developed and emerging markets, excluding the United States. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index for U.S. dollar denominated investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization–weighted index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation to represent U.S. equity performance. The MSCI USA Health Care Index is designed to capture the large and mid cap segments of the US equity universe. All securities in the index are classified in the Health Care sector as per the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®). The MSCI USA Materials Index is designed to capture the large and mid cap segments of the US equity universe. All securities in the index are classified in the Materials sector as per the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®). The Bloomberg U.S. 3 Month Treasury Bellwether Index is a market value-weighted index of investment-grade fixed-rate public obligations of the US Treasury with maturities of 3 months, excluding zero coupon strips. The views expressed in the foregoing commentary were prepared by Strategic Advisers LLC (Strategic Advisers), based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Unless otherwise noted, the opinions provided are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Fidelity Investments. This commentary is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute a current or past recommendation, investment advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. The information and opinions presented are current only as of the date of writing, without regard to the date on which you may access this information. All opinions and estimates are subject to change at any time without notice.

Strategic Advisers LLC (Strategic Advisers) is a registered investment adviser and a Fidelity Investments company.

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