Then use the slider below to see how the presidential and congressional races may matter.
Some of the 2017 tax cuts for those earning less than $400,000 may be extended. But higher earners could be hit with higher income and capital gains taxes. Also possible: an increase in the top corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% or more.
A divided Congress may extend some of the 2017 tax cuts, including lower income tax rates for people making less than $400,000 and keeping the current 20% top capital gains tax. But other items like a higher corporate rate could be up for negotiation.
Some of the 2017 tax cuts could be extended, including the current top income tax rate of 37%, and higher standard deduction levels. But other items like current limits on state and local tax deductions and the mortgage interest deduction could be up for negotiation.
The 2017 tax cuts could be made permanent, including a top income tax rate of 37%, a top capital gains rate of 20%, and higher standard deduction levels. And additional cuts could be possible, such as further lowering the corporate tax rate and eliminating taxes on income from tips.
A Democratic sweep could mean more resources for marketing state health care exchanges and increasing subsidies for health insurance premiums for people on the exchanges. Also possible: action to reduce drug prices by capping more prescription drug costs, letting Medicare negotiate more drug prices, and regulating pharmacy benefit managers.
A divided Congress could find common ground in supporting efforts to reduce some drug prices as well as increase transparency around health care pricing. Less likely: bigger budgets for health care exchanges or increased subsidies for people using them.
Administrative resources and support for marketing health care exchanges might be reduced. There could also be bipartisan support for containing drug costs by regulating pharmacy benefit managers and letting Medicare negotiate more drug prices.
A Republican sweep could support Republican proposals to limit Medicaid resources and offer cheaper private plans that may not cover preexisting conditions. Also possible: action to rein in Medicare drug "rebates” currently paid by pharmaceutical companies, which could lower out-of-pocket consumer drug costs.
Keep an eye out for a move to eliminate backdoor Roth conversions for high earners, shore up the Social Security Trust Fund by raising the taxable income cap above the current $168,600 limit, and requiring distributions on IRAs greater than $10 million. Also possible: legislation requiring nearly all employers to offer a retirement plan or automatic IRA arrangement for employees.
Limits on Roth conversions and higher Social Security taxes for high earners are less likely with a divided Congress. But congressional actions could include making it easier for employers to automatically enroll younger workers into retirement accounts and reenroll employees who have dropped out.
Big changes to retirement policy are unlikely. But there could be common ground for smaller items such as broadening the base of workers who are eligible for workplace retirement plans.
A Republican White House and Congress might revisit the tax treatment of workplace retirement accounts, so more contributions would be after-tax. Also expect continuing efforts to make it easier for small businesses to set up retirement plans for their workers.
Historically, US stocks have continued to rise under nearly every partisan combination, so don’t expect the election outcome to be a major driver or detractor of overall returns. That said, any increase in the corporate tax rate could weigh on stocks. Deficit spending is likely to persist under this outcome, placing continued upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. Any new or increased tariffs could add to those pressures.
There’s some historical evidence that divided government has correlated with stronger stock market returns. That said, don’t expect the election outcome to be a major driver or detractor of returns. Deficit spending may persist under this outcome, placing continued upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. Any new or increased tariffs could add to those pressures.
There’s some historical evidence that divided government has correlated with stronger stock market returns. That said, don’t expect the election outcome to be a major driver or detractor of returns. Deficit spending may persist under this outcome, placing continued upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. Any new or increased tariffs could add to those pressures.
Historically, US stocks have continued to rise under nearly every partisan combination, so don’t expect the election outcome to be a major driver or detractor of returns. Deficit spending may persist under this outcome, placing continued upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. Any new or increased tariffs could add to those pressures.
The current estate tax exclusion could expire, dropping nearly in half from the current $13.61 million for singles and $27.22 million for couples. Also possible: elimination of the step-up in basis for certain inherited assets with unrealized capital gains in excess of $5.25 million for single filers and $10.5 million for those who are married filing jointly.
In a divided Congress it could be tougher to extend the current estate tax exclusions of $13.61 million for singles and $27.22 million for couples. Likewise, Democratic proposals to eliminate the step-up in basis for large unrealized capital gains could be difficult to pass.
The current estate tax exclusion of $13.61 million for singles and $27.22 million for couples could be extended, but not increased. The step-up in basis is unlikely to be cut back.
The current estate tax exclusion of $13.61 million for singles and $27.22 million for couples could be made permanent or even increased. The step-up in basis is unlikely to be cut back.