There are two moments when checking on the value of your investments may be almost irresistible: when your balance is soaring—and when it is tanking. But that’s just when emotions have a nasty way of clouding the minds of even the most seasoned investors.
It is better to give your portfolio a regular checkup. At the very least, you should check your asset allocation, once a year, or any time your financial circumstances change significantly—for instance, if you lose your job or get a big bonus. Your checkup is a good time to determine if you need to rebalance your asset mix or reconsider some of your specific investments.
We believe that setting and maintaining your strategic asset allocation are among the most important ingredients in your long-term investment success. No matter what your age or goals, we believe this means being diversified both among and within different types of stocks, bonds, and other investments.
The goal of diversification is not necessarily to boost performance—it won’t ensure gains or guarantee against losses. But once you choose to target a level of risk based on your goals, time horizon, and tolerance for volatility, diversification may provide the potential to improve returns for that level of risk.
To build a diversified portfolio, you should look for assets—stocks, bonds, cash, or others—whose returns haven’t historically moved in the same direction, and to the same degree, and, ideally, assets whose returns typically move in opposite directions. This way, even if a portion of your portfolio is declining, the rest of your portfolio, hopefully, is growing. Thus, you can potentially offset some of the impact of a poorly performing asset class on your overall portfolio.
Another important aspect of building a well-diversified portfolio is that you try to stay diversified within each type of investment.
Within your individual stock holdings, beware of overconcentration in a single stock. For example, you may not want one stock to make up more than 5% of your stock portfolio. Fidelity also believes it’s smart to diversify across stocks by market capitalization (small, mid, and large caps), sectors, and geography. Again, not all caps, sectors, and regions have prospered at the same time, or to the same degree, so you may be able to reduce portfolio risk by spreading your assets across different parts of the stock market. You may want to consider a mix of styles, too, such as growth and value.
Similarly, when it comes to your bond investments, consider varying maturities, credit qualities and durations, which measure sensitivity to interest-rate changes.
Diversification has proven its long-term value
During the 2008–2009 bear market, many different types of investments lost value to some degree at the same time. While it may have felt as though diversification failed during the downturn, it didn’t. The major asset classes were more highly correlated, but diversification still helped contain portfolio losses.
Consider the performance of three hypothetical portfolios: a diversified portfolio of 70% stocks, 25% bonds, and 5% short-term investments; a 100% stock portfolio; and an all-cash portfolio.
By the end of February 2009, both the all-stock and the diversified portfolios would have declined. The all-stock portfolio would have lost nearly half of its initial value (–49.7%); however, the diversified portfolio would have lost a bit more than a third (35%). Yes, the diversified portfolio would have declined, but diversification would have helped reduce losses compared with the all-stock portfolio. The all-cash portfolio (1.6%) would have outperformed the all-stock and diversified portfolios over this 14-month period.
Watching the value of a stock or diversified portfolio fall that much is just the kind of situation that can stir an investor’s emotions—and sometimes lead to short-term decision making, including dumping your stock holdings. Indeed, keeping your money in cash might have seemed like a good idea in February 2009. But look at what happened as market started to come back.
Five years after the bottom, our hypothetical all-stock portfolio would have risen by 162.3%, the diversified portfolio by 99.7%, and the all-cash portfolio by 0.3%. The all-stock portfolio got the biggest lift during the market’s upswing. This is a good example of how such portfolios can behave when the market is in an upward trend—the diversified portfolio may gain less than the all-stock portfolio and more than the all-cash portfolio.
Now let’s look at what happened over a longer cycle. From January 2008 through February 2014, the diversified portfolio was up 29.9 %, while the all-stock portfolio was up 31.8%. This is what diversification is about. It will not maximize gains in rising markets, but it captured most of the gains while delivering less volatility than just investing in stocks.
The high price of bad timing
Why is it so important to have a risk level you can live with? As the example above illustrates, the value of a diversified portfolio usually plays out over time. Unfortunately, many investors struggle to realize the benefits of their investment strategy because in buoyant markets, people tend to chase performance and purchase higher-risk investments. In a market downturn, investors tend to flock to lower-risk investment options, which can lead to missed opportunities during ensuing market recoveries. The degree of underperformance by individual investors has often been the worst during bear markets. Studies have consistently shown that the returns achieved by the average stock or bond fund investor have lagged, often by a large margin, the reported returns of the average stock or bond index.
The data from DALBAR (see chart right) shows that fund investors trail the market significantly. This means the decisions investors make about diversification within and across asset classes and trying to time when to get into or out of the market, as well as about fees or underperforming funds, cause them to generate far lower returns than the overall market.
“Being disciplined as an investor isn’t always easy, but over time it has demonstrated the ability to generate wealth, while market timing has proven to be a costly exercise for many investors,” observes an executive vice president at Fidelity Investments. “Having a plan that includes appropriate asset allocation and regular rebalancing can help investors overcome this challenge.”
Building a diversified portfolio
To start, you need to make sure your asset mix (e.g., stocks, bonds, and short-term investments) is aligned to your investment time frame, financial needs, and comfort with volatility. The sample asset mixes below combine various amounts of stock, bond, and short-term investments to illustrate different levels of risk and return potential.
Diversification is not a one-time task.
Once you have a target mix, you need to keep it on track with periodic checkups and rebalancing. If you don’t rebalance, a good run in stocks could leave your portfolio with a risk level that is inconsistent with your goal and strategy.
What if you don’t rebalance? Let’s look at a hypothetical portfolio over a historical 20-year period to illustrate how changing markets, such as last year’s large rise in the S&P 500, can have an impact on an investment mix—and, in turn, on the amount of risk in a portfolio.
Consider a hypothetical growth portfolio with 70% in stocks (49% U.S. and 21% foreign), 25% bonds, and 5% short-term investments, in January 1996. Two decades later at the end of December 2015, the investment mix has changed dramatically—to 80% in stocks (65% U.S. and 15% foreign), 18% in bonds, and 2% short term (see the chart right).
The resulting increased weight in Stocks (both domestic and foreign) meant the portfolio now had more potential risk. Why? Because while past performance does not guarantee future results, stocks have historically had larger price swings than bonds or cash. This means that when a portfolio skews toward stocks, the portfolio has the potential for bigger ups and downs.1 In fact, as the chart below shows, the portfolio’s risk level as of December 2015 was nearly 13% greater than that of the target mix due to changes in the asset allocation associated with the relative returns to stocks, bonds, and cash. The standard deviation (e.g., risk) was 13.7% for the rebalanced portfolio and 15.5% for the buy and hold portfolio. (Portfolio risk is measured by the annualized standard deviation of monthly returns, which shows the variability of a portfolio’s returns.)2
Let’s take a closer look at the risk levels of the hypothetical portfolio over time. The chart below shows the hypothetical portfolio’s risk for two scenarios: if the investment mix were rebalanced back to the target every year, and if no rebalancing ever took place—in other words, a buy and hold strategy. As you can see, the risk of the buy-and-hold portfolio varied more widely than that of the rebalanced portfolio. On average, during this time period, the buy-and-hold portfolio experienced higher risk (annualized portfolio volatility).
Rebalancing is not just a risk-reducing exercise. The goal is to reset your asset mix to bring it back to the expected and appropriate risk level for you. Sometimes that means reducing risk by increasing the portion of a portfolio in more conservative options, but sometimes it means adding more risk to get back to your target mix. That could mean increasing investments in riskier asset classes such as stocks. Investing is an ongoing process. You need to create a plan, choose appropriate investments, and then conduct regular checkups to keep your portfolio on track. Here are the three steps to do just that:
1. Know your target investment mix
If you haven’t already done so, choose a mix of stocks, bonds, and short-term investments that you consider appropriate for your investing goals. Take into account your financial situation, tolerance for volatility, and when you will need the money you are investing.
Stocks have historically had higher potential for growth, and longer time periods can help to smooth out volatility.
On the other hand, if you’ll need the money in just a few years—or if the thought of potentially losing money makes you too nervous—consider a higher allocation to generally less volatile investments such as bonds and short-term investments. By doing this, of course, you’d be trading the potential of higher returns for the potential of lower volatility.
2. Review your portfolio regularly
We suggest you—on your own or in partnership with an investment professional—monitor your asset mix at least annually, or whenever your financial circumstances change, and rebalance your portfolio to correct for significant drift away from the mix you choose. As a guideline, you may want to consider rebalancing if your stock allocation moves away from your target by more than 10 percentage points.
3. Rebalancing when needed
There are a variety of ways to rebalance your portfolio. One is to sell those asset classes you currently have too much of and reinvest the proceeds in those that fall short of your target. But selling securities in taxable accounts generally has tax consequences in the year of a sale, so be sure to consider taxes when making any decisions to sell. A way to rebalance without immediate tax consequences is to invest any new money you have (savings contributions, bonus, etc.), either gradually or all at once, in investments in asset classes that currently fall below your target.
Regardless of which approach you take, one important aspect of rebalancing is that you do it in a way that also keeps your portfolio diversified within each type of investment.
Achieving your long-term goals requires balancing risk and reward. Choosing the right mix of investments and then periodically rebalancing and monitoring your choices can make a big difference in your outcome.
- Get a holistic view of your retirement plan with our Planning & Guidance Center, and explore changes that may help you become better prepared.
- Research professional management of your portfolio with Fidelity Portfolio Advisory Service.®3
- Consider a single-fund strategy such as Fidelity Freedom® Funds4 or Fidelity Asset Manager® Funds.
- Consider a variable annuity that provides you with guaranteed lifetime income.5
- Call a Fidelity Investment Professional at 800-343-3548 to discuss your goals and objectives and help determine the right investment mix for you.
Before investing, consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the fund or annuity and its investment options. Call or write to Fidelity or visit Fidelity.com for a free prospectus and, if available, summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.
This information is intended to be educational and is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific investor.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.
In general, the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk, liquidity risk, call risk, and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so holding them until maturity to avoid losses caused by price volatility is not possible.
Equity performance is represented by the Standard & Poor's 500 Composite Index, an unmanaged index of 500 common stocks generally representative of the U.S. stock market. S&P 500® and S&P are registered service marks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., and are licensed for use by Fidelity Distributors Corporation and its affiliates. Fixed income performance is represented by the Barclays Capital Aggregate Index. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Index is an unmanaged market value–weighted index representing securities that are SEC registered, taxable, and dollar denominated. This index covers the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, with index components for a combination of the Barclays Capital government and corporate securities, mortgage-backed pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Performance of an index is not illustrative of any particular investment. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
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