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5 investment ideas when rates fall

Key takeaways

  • Undervalued homebuilder stocks may become more attractive if mortgage rates decline.
  • Intermediate-term bonds may offer stability and income, benefiting from falling rates and price appreciation potential.
  • Global and industrial stocks show promise, driven by currency shifts, early-cycle growth abroad, and long-term infrastructure trends.

With the Federal Reserve restarting its campaign of interest-rate cuts last week, markets may be entering a new phase that could create fresh opportunities for investors across a range of asset classes.

Historically, rate cuts have had mixed implications for markets. But there’s reason to believe that this time around, certain specific market segments—as well as some broad asset classes—could respond positively.

Read on for 5 investing ideas to consider when interest rates are falling.

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1. Homebuilders: Poised for a rebound in the housing market

Few segments of the economy are as sensitive to interest rates as the housing market. After a prolonged deep freeze in home sales—driven by affordability challenges and high mortgage rates—the housing market could finally be ready to thaw. Such a turnaround could be bullish for homebuilders.

One key to a continuing rebound? Whether Fed rate cuts translate into lower long-term yields and mortgage rates. That link didn’t hold a year ago as the Fed was cutting rates, but if mortgage rates fall this time, demand for new and existing homes could rise—and homebuilder stocks, which have been trading at low relative valuations, could benefit.

Historically, when homebuilder stocks have been this cheap and long-term rates have fallen, they’ve outperformed nearly 80% of the time. Even if home prices were to decline, those low valuations may help cushion the potential downside.

“Homebuilders offer the closest correlation to home sales that you can find in the stock market, and the risk-to-reward ratio on these stocks looks appealing to me in the current environment,” says Denise Chisholm, director of quantitative market strategy with Fidelity.

Read more about the case for homebuilder stocks.

Graphic shows the odds of outperformance when the Fed is cutting rates by quartile of Fed Funds rate. Where we currently are, in the second lowest quartile absent a recession, odds are 77%.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Analysis based on the S&P 500. Fed funds rate dividend into quartiles. All data gathered and analyzed monthly from since January 1970. Source: FactSet, Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments, Bloomberg, as of Aug. 29, 2025.

2. Intermediate-term bonds: A sweet spot for income and diversification

Falling rates can present a conundrum for investors who have been relying on relatively high yields in short-term fixed income. As rates fall, investors with short-term CDs and bonds coming due or who have been parked in money-market funds, may find they can’t earn as much on their money as they were a few years (or months) ago.

By investing at slightly longer maturities, investors may be able to lock in today’s still relatively high interest rates for longer—heading off the chances of further interest-rate cuts eating into their portfolio’s income-producing potential.

Moreover, bonds with longer maturities are more rate-sensitive than shorter-term bonds, and so have the potential to rise in price as interest rates fall (bond prices generally fall when interest rates rise and rise when interest rates fall). This means going longer could offer investors a double benefit: Locking in higher rates for longer, while also setting investors up to benefit from any price gains.

Intermediate-term bonds—such as those with maturities of around 5 years—have historically provided a buffer against stock market swings, while still offering the potential for capital appreciation and current income. In the current environment, the balance they offer between yield and rate sensitivity could be a sweet spot.

Graphic illustrates that the federal funds rate is expected to continue falling. If you buy a bond before rates drop further, its coupon remains the same until the bond matures. You are paid interest regularly, and as rates come down, the market value of the bond may increase.
Expectations based on Federal Reserve Board summary of Economic Projections, September 2025. For illustration purposes only.

3. US stocks: A potential broad lift from falling rates

Rate cuts alone aren’t always bullish for stocks. What really matters is why the Fed is cutting. When the Fed has cut rates because it must—in response to a recession—returns have been poor. When the Fed has cut rates because it may—meaning inflation is low and growth is slowing but not negative—returns have been strong.

Much has been made of recently reported weakness in the job market, with some investors extrapolating that this weakness is a sign of looming recession. But remember that jobs numbers are inherently a backward-looking indicator—they only tell us where the ball has been, and not necessarily where it’s going.

“What I find more convincing are certain leading indicators, meaning metrics that turn before the economy does,” says Chisholm. For example, CEO business confidence—meaning the confidence CEOs have about their own business conditions—saw a big jump recently, rising 30% over the previous quarter. CEOs generally have well-informed views shaped by the concrete outlook for their businesses. In the past, jumps in confidence like this have been leading indicators of future earnings growth and economic growth.

“This is not to say that recession is completely off the table as a possibility, but I believe recession risks are limited right now,” says Chisholm. “If the economy does keep growing, it could create very bullish conditions for US stocks.”

In fact, in past periods with similar conditions, stocks got a lift not only from rising expected earnings growth, but also from rising valuations like price-earnings ratios (PEs).

Read more about why rate cuts could be bullish.

Graphic shows that CEO confidence has bounced back from a low in the most recent quarter. When CEO confidence has been at this level in the past, the S&P 500 has returned 12.4% over the next 12 months.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Analysis based on the S&P 500. CEO confidence divided into quartiles. All data gathered and analyzed monthly since January 1976. Sources: FactSet, Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments, Bloomberg, as of Aug. 15, 2025.

4. International stocks: Diversification with potential

After years of underperformance, international stocks have been roaring back to life so far in 2025. While both emerging and developed-market stocks have been broadly outperforming US stocks this year, developed markets have been at the top of the leaderboard. As of September 12, the MSCI EAFE Index of developed markets had returned 25% year to date in 2025, compared to 26.1% for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and 11.2% for the S&P 500.

Partly fueling this outperformance has been a weakening US dollar. The US dollar has declined 10% so far in 2025, compared with a basket of other countries’ currencies. When the value of foreign currencies rises relative to the US dollar (i.e., when the dollar falls relative to these currencies), holdings denominated in those currencies rise in dollar terms.

But the case for international investing goes beyond currency. Many global economies are in earlier stages of the business cycle than the US, with central banks in Europe and Canada already having cut rates. And valuations abroad remain attractive relative to US stocks, especially in emerging markets, where consumer demand is expected to drive long-term growth.

From European luxury brands to Japanese companies undergoing governance reforms, international markets may offer compelling opportunities for investors looking to diversify. Learn more about the case for going international.

Graphic shows the US dollar index against a basket of other currencies. While the dollar has dropped 10% since the start of the year, it is still relatively high when you look at the longer term.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Fidelity Investments, as of Sept. 9, 2025.

5. Industrial stocks: Riding long-term trends

Industrials have been one of the top-performing US sectors so far this year, thanks to strength in aerospace and defense, construction, and electrical equipment. But the rally may not be over.

Big-picture trends like reshoring, the AI infrastructure buildout, and factory automation have been fueling demand for industrial products and services. Companies that provide the physical backbone of the economy—like power systems, climate control, and advanced manufacturing—could be well positioned to benefit.

While some areas of the sector remain sensitive to an economic slowdown, many industrial firms are aligned with longer-term market trends and growth drivers that could support continued momentum.

Learn more about why momentum in industrials could continue.

Graphic compares the S&P 500 to the industrials sector so far this year. The S&P 500 has gained 10.2% while the industrials sector has gained 14.1%
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: S&P Global, as of Sept. 9, 2025.

The bottom line

Rate cuts don’t guarantee market gains—but they can create favorable conditions for certain investments. Whether you’re looking for growth, income, or diversification, now may be a good time to revisit your portfolio and consider where opportunities may lie.

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Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

Views expressed are as of the date indicated, based on the information available at that time, and may change based on market or other conditions. Unless otherwise noted, the opinions provided are those of the speaker or author and not necessarily those of Fidelity Investments or its affiliates. Fidelity does not assume any duty to update any of the information.

In general, the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk, liquidity risk, call risk, and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so holding them until maturity to avoid losses caused by price volatility is not possible. Lower yields - Treasury securities typically pay less interest than other securities in exchange for lower default or credit risk. Interest rate risk - Treasuries are susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates, with the degree of volatility increasing with the amount of time until maturity. As rates rise, prices will typically decline. Call risk - Some Treasury securities carry call provisions that allow the bonds to be retired prior to stated maturity. This typically occurs when rates fall. Inflation risk - With relatively low yields, income produced by Treasuries may be lower than the rate of inflation. This does not apply to TIPS, which are inflation protected. Credit or default risk - Investors need to be aware that all bonds have the risk of default. Investors should monitor current events, as well as the ratio of national debt to gross domestic product, Treasury yields, credit ratings, and the weaknesses of the dollar for signs that default risk may be rising.

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As with all your investments through Fidelity, you must make your own determination whether an investment in any particular security or securities is consistent with your investment objectives, risk tolerance, financial situation, and evaluation of the security. Fidelity is not recommending or endorsing this investment by making it available to its customers.

Industrials industries can be significantly affected by general economic trends, changes in consumer sentiment and spending, commodity prices, legislation, government regulation and spending, import controls, and worldwide competition, and can be subject to liability for environmental damage, depletion of resources, and mandated expenditures for safety and pollution control.

The consumer discretionary industries can be significantly affected by the performance of the overall economy, interest rates, competition, consumer confidence and spending, and changes in demographics and consumer tastes.

The S&P 500® Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation to represent US equity performance. The US Dollar Index, or DXY, measures the dollar against a basket of six currencies: The Euro, the Japanese Yen, the British Pound, the Canadian Dollar, the Swedish Krona, and the Swiss Franc. MSCI EAFE Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the investable equity market performance for global investors of developed markets, excluding the U.S. & Canada. Index returns are adjusted for tax withholding rates applicable to U.S. based mutual funds organized as Massachusetts business trusts (NR). MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the investable equity market performance for global investors in emerging markets. Index returns are adjusted for tax withholding rates applicable to U.S. based mutual funds organized as Massachusetts business trusts (NR). Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

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