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Manager's Mindset: December 2025

Key takeaways

  • AI is a Powerful Economic Engine: The massive wave of corporate investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a primary force supporting the U.S. economy and stock market, providing resilience against challenges like the government shutdown and rising tariffs.
  • There's More Than One Way to Invest in AI: You don't have to only buy expensive tech stocks to participate.
  • Selectivity is Crucial: The AI trend isn't a secret. A careful, research-driven approach is essential to avoid overpaying and to identify companies positioned for long-term, sustainable growth across the entire AI ecosystem.

Navigating opportunity and uncertainty in a shifting global landscape

In today’s market, it’s easy to feel pulled in different directions. One day, headlines celebrate record highs; the next, they warn of economic uncertainty. Additionally, with the recent government shutdown, the backdrop feels even more complex.

At the same time, another powerful story is unfolding, one of immense investment and innovation: the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. AI is dominating the conversation, capturing imaginations and helping to reshape the economic market before our eyes. This year has been marked by an astonishing wave of AI investment. $1 trillion1 in AI-related deals have been announced across the tech industry; fueling innovation, competition, and market momentum.

Without the capital expenditure related to AI, US GDP growth in 2025 would likely be significantly lower. This spending has provided a layer of resilience to US equity markets, helping to offset challenges from softening consumer spending and ongoing trade tariffs.

Investing in the Future, Today

Artificial Intelligence may end up being the revolutionary change of our time, on par with the invention of the internet and even approaching the Industrial revolution. The race to lead in AI is fierce, with most established technology companies as well as a handful of formidable new (and in many cases private) companies working at breakneck speed. Many companies are attempting to enable and improve the large language models (LLMs) and reasoning models that underpin AI while simultaneously partnering with a vast array of companies across multiple sectors to secure the semiconductor chips, power, land, specialized labor, among other critical ingredients, necessary to support the data center build out required for their massive AI ambitions.

The Equity SMA exposure to AI varies by strategy. For example, the Fidelity US Large Cap Strategy has almost 30% allocated to the technology sector (as of 10/31/2025), with many constituents in that sector representing investments in companies which are direct beneficiaries of the AI boom. Given that technology has been a long-time outperformer in the market and is among the most expensive sectors in the market, the strategy’s exposure to technology is lower than the S&P 500 Index exposure. This, however, is offset by AI related exposure in other sectors such as Industrials, where electrical equipment and machinery companies which enable data centers to be built out, represent an indirect, but arguably more compelling way to benefit from the same overarching theme.

The more income oriented and defensive Fidelity Dividend Income Strategy has a more modest roughly 15% allocation (as of 10/31/2025) to the AI heavy tech sector, where an absence of dividend yield and expensive valuations limit our opportunity set. However, this is offset by a combined nearly 20% allocation to the utilities and industrials sectors. This is where the strategy gets its indirect AI exposure. If the AI boom plays out as expected, it should create a once-in-a-generation surge in electricity demand. Data centers are incredibly power-hungry, and well-positioned U.S. utility companies stand to benefit significantly from this increased demand, which can translate into higher earnings and, in turn, growing dividends for investors.

Research-Driven. Opportunity-Focused

Spotting underappreciated investment opportunities in today’s market isn’t easy, but when done right, it can be incredibly rewarding. At Fidelity, we rely on the strength of our deep, fundamental research team to uncover these opportunities. Our analysts cover every sector, region, and company size, including private companies where we’ve invested.

But we don’t stop at the numbers. Using the research and the company earnings models as a base, we then complement that with insights from direct engagement with the management teams of our potential investments, their competitors, the supply chain including the important read across from other sectors that have a big impact.

Take AI as an example. For AI to grow as expected, it’s not just about semiconductors and software, it requires massive data centers, and a reliable power grid to support it all. By speaking with companies across this entire ecosystem, from chipmakers to gas turbine manufacturers to utility providers, we gain valuable insights that help us assess the true investment potential of AI.

This level of access and insight helps us cut through the noise, focus on what truly matters, and position our portfolios to pursue long-term, sustainable growth.

Smart Investing Means Being Selective

There’s no doubt that Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one of the most powerful investment themes of our time. From automating tasks to transforming industries, AI is reshaping the way we live and work, and investors have taken notice.

But here’s the catch: AI isn’t exactly a secret. Many stocks, especially in the technology sector, are already priced as if they’ll be the big winners of the AI boom. While some companies will thrive, others may struggle to keep up. And with so much capital pouring into AI, there’s a real risk of overinvestment, which could lead to excess capacity and disappointing returns. Given those concerns, our Equity SMA strategies have a meaningful allocation to AI related companies, but relative to the benchmark, we are currently underweight the AI heavy technology sector.

In short, we’re investing in AI, but doing it with care, selectivity, and a focus on sustainable returns.

What’s next for stocks

Since the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, U.S. equity markets have delivered a remarkable stretch of strong performance. In light of the above-average returns observed in recent years, it may be reasonable to consider the potential for more moderate growth in the period ahead.

That doesn’t mean we’re predicting a recession or a major economic shock. Instead, we’re acknowledging that markets may not continue to deliver the same outsized gains we've seen in the past. With that context, we are trying to build portfolios with companies with strong fundamentals, resilient business models, and the ability to navigate a wide range of economic outcomes. This helps reduce reliance on getting a single economic outcome (such as the direction of interest rates) right.

In short, we’re not chasing trends, we’re building portfolios that seek to weather uncertainty and deliver value over time.

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1 Gartner AI Spending Press Release, as of September 17, 2025 Important additional information. Keep in mind that investing involves risk. The value of your investment will fluctuate over time, and you may gain or lose money. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This presentation does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax, or other advice, nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. No assumption should be made regarding the manner in which a client's account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies will depend upon each client's investment objectives. None of the information contained herein takes into account the particular investment objectives, restrictions, tax or financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Certain strategies discussed herein give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. The information contained in this material is only as current as the date indicated and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Unless otherwise noted, this commentary does not necessarily represent the views of Fidelity Investments. This commentary is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute a current or past recommendation, investment advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. The information and opinions presented are current only as of the date of writing without regard to the date on which you may access this information. All opinions and estimates are subject to change at any time without notice. Data is unaudited. Information may not be representative of current or future holdings. Stock markets are volatile and can decline significantly in response to adverse issue or political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. Investing in stocks involves risk, including the loss of principal. The technology industries can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants, and general economic condition. Sector allocation compares information about the model portfolio for the Fidelity U.S. Large Cap Strategy and the model portfolio for the Fidelity Dividend Income Strategy, to the strategy's benchmark index, the Standard & Poors 500® Index. The model portfolio provides the basis for trading in U.S. Large Cap Strategy and Dividend Income Strategy accounts. Because each client account may hold only a subset of the securities in the model portfolio and may hold securities in different weights than the model portfolio, the overall portfolio information for any one client account may differ, perhaps significantly, from the model portfolio. All indexes are unmanaged, and performance of the indexes include reinvestment of dividends and interest income, unless otherwise noted. Indexes are not illustrative of any particular investment, and it is not possible to invest directly in an index. Securities indices are not subject to fees and expenses typically associated with managed accounts or investment funds. The S&P 500 index is an unmanaged market capitalization weighted index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation to present U.S. equity performance. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed without express written permission of Fidelity Investments. Fidelity® Strategic Disciplines provides nondiscretionary financial planning and discretionary investment management for a fee. Fidelity® Strategic Disciplines includes the Fidelity® Dividend Income Strategy and the Fidelity® U.S. Large Cap Strategy. Advisory services offered by Strategic Advisers LLC (Strategic Advisers), a registered investment adviser. Brokerage services provided by Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC (FBS), and custodial and related services provided by National Financial Services LLC (NFS), each a member NYSE and SIPC. Strategic Advisers, FBS, and NFS are Fidelity Investments companies. *Strategic Advisers, provides discretionary portfolio management of Fidelity® Dividend Income Strategy and Fidelity® U.S. Large Cap Strategy accounts, including investment selection and trade execution. Strategic Advisers implements trades for Fidelity® Dividend Income Strategy and Fidelity® U.S. Large Cap Strategy accounts based on the model portfolio of investments it receives from its affiliate, Fidelity Management & Research Company LLC (FMR), but may select investments for an account that differ from the FMR model. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC. 900 Salem Street, Smithfield, Rhode Island, 02917. © 2025 FMR LLC. All rights reserved. 941564.43.0