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2026 midyear investing outlook

Position for resilience—and growth potential—in the second half.

2026 may feel like a year no one could have seen coming, with new geopolitical conflicts, oil market dislocations, and sudden bursts of market volatility.

Yet in many ways, the year so far has followed a familiar script. Stock prices have generally tracked corporate profits, as they usually do. Those profits have been rising, as analysts expected they would this year. And investors who stayed invested through the day-to-day noise have generally fared better than those who sat out of the market—as has often been the case historically.

As the second half of the year dawns, the US economy remains on relatively solid footing. While the ongoing situation in the Middle East poses a potential risk to inflation and economic growth, so far the disruptions have not been sufficient to derail the US economy from its growth trajectory. Read or watch below for more on the economic outlook from Fidelity’s professionals.

2026 midyear roundtable

Join us for a timely conversation about how the economic backdrop may shape the rest of the year.

Outlook for markets and investments

Despite significant turbulence along the way, most major stock market segments—including US and international stocks, as well as large- and small-cap companies—were posting positive returns for the year as of mid-May. Some areas, including emerging-market stocks and small caps, had even moved into double-digit return territory.

Seeing the market notch one all-time high after another can understandably make investors cautious about putting new money to work. But due to the strength of corporate earnings growth, Fidelity professionals say the market generally does not appear overstretched. That doesn’t mean a pullback in the second half is off the table—periods of volatility are always possible. Still, if earnings growth holds up and interest rates don’t become a headwind, continued market strength remains a real possibility.

Read more below on Fidelity pros’ market outlook and investing ideas for the second half of the year.

The new diversification

Increasingly, savvy investors are looking beyond stocks and bonds. Learn where—and why.

Your midyear financial check-in

Beyond investing, midyear brings a fresh chance to take stock of your finances—so you can spot new opportunities and address sources of financial stress head on.

Recent tax law changes continue to ripple through the financial landscape, creating new saving and planning opportunities for many. And while inflation has once again shown signs of picking up, there are practical steps you can take to help protect both your finances and your peace of mind.

Read more below for money moves, tax tips, and inflation‑fighting strategies designed to help you finish the year on stronger, more confident financial footing.

Go deeper: Watch for more insights

Keep exploring with webcasts that dig deeper into some of the key questions facing investors and savers today—from retiring into a volatile market to generating income from a portfolio to navigating what's next for crypto.

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1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Estimated earnings per share based on analyst consensus estimates for earnings over the following 12 months for S&P 500 companies. The S&P 500® Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation to represent US equity performance. Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Source: FactSet. Data as of April 29, 2026. 2. The ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index compiled by the Institute for Supply Management that reflects prevailing business conditions in the US manufacturing sector. It is based on monthly survey responses from purchasing and supply executives regarding new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Readings above 50 indicate expansion in manufacturing activity relative to the prior month, while readings below 50 indicate contraction. Source: ISM® Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index®, as of April 2026. 3. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics as of April 2026. Note: Due to the government shutdown, no data was collected in October 2025. 4. US household personal incomes and US household energy expense based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index. Data as of March 2, 2026. Sources: Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments. 5. The Consumer Price Index is an inflation measure published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics that tracks changes over time in the prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is an inflation measure produced by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis that reflects changes in price of goods and services purchased by households, and is adjusted for shifts in consumer spending behavior. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as of April 2026. Note: Due to the government shutdown, no CPI data was reported for October 2025. Investing Disclaimers

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Views expressed are as of the date indicated, based on the information available at that time, and may change based on market or other conditions. Unless otherwise noted, the opinions provided are those of the speaker or author and not necessarily those of Fidelity Investments or its affiliates. Fidelity does not assume any duty to update any of the information.

Fidelity does not provide legal or tax advice. The information herein is general in nature and should not be considered legal or tax advice. Consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific situation.

​As with all your investments through Fidelity, and in connection with your evaluation of the security, you must make your own determination whether an investment in any particular security or securities is consistent with your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation. Fidelity is not recommending or endorsing this investment by making it available to its customers.

The technology industries can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants, and general economic condition.

The health care industries are subject to government regulation and reimbursement rates, as well as government approval of products and services, which could have a significant effect on price and availability, and can be significantly affected by rapid obsolescence and patent expirations.

 Preferred securities are subject to interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, preferred securities prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Preferred securities also have credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties, liquidity risk, and if callable, call risk. Dividend or interest payments on preferred securities may be variable, suspended or deferred by the issuer at any time, and missed or deferred payments may not be paid at a future date. If payments are suspended or deferred by the issuer, the deferred income may still be taxable. See your tax advisor for more details. Most Preferred securities have call features which allow the issuer to redeem the securities at its discretion on specified dates as well as upon the occurrence of certain events. Other early redemption provisions may exist which could affect yield. Certain preferred securities are convertible into common stock of the issuer, therefore, their market prices can be sensitive to changes in the value of the issuer's common stock. Some preferred securities are perpetual, meaning they have no stated maturity date. In the case of preferred securities with a stated maturity date, the issuer may, under certain circumstances, extend this date at its discretion. Extension of maturity date would delay final repayment on the securities. Please read the prospectus, which may be located on the SEC's EDGAR system, to understand the terms, conditions and specific features of the security prior to investing. The precious metals market can be significantly affected by international monetary and political developments such as currency devaluations or revaluations, central bank movements, economic and social conditions within a country, trade imbalances, or trade or currency restrictions between countries. The precious metals market is extremely volatile, and investing directly in physical precious metals may not be appropriate for most investors. Bullion and coin investments in FBS accounts are not covered by either the SIPC or insurance "in excess of SIPC" coverage of FBS or NFS.

Stock markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. Investing in stock involves risks, including the loss of principal.

In general, the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk, liquidity risk, call risk, and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so holding them until maturity to avoid losses caused by price volatility is not possible. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Foreign markets can be more volatile than U.S. markets due to increased risks of adverse issuer, political, market, or economic developments, all of which are magnified in emerging markets. These risks are particularly significant for investments that focus on a single country or region.

Because of their narrow focus, sector investments tend to be more volatile than investments that diversify across many sectors and companies.

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