After much congressional wrangling, the federal government is now funded until January 30, ending the longest government shutdown ever. That means nonessential federal government activities that were closed temporarily will reopen.
Shutdowns are hardly a rarity. Since the first in 1981, the government has been forced to shut down 11 times. The lengths have ranged from 1 day to 43 days in 2025. But even when shutdowns have been extended, there has been little adverse impact on markets.
How might the end of the government shutdown affect stocks this time?
If there’s anything positive about this pattern of recurring shutdowns, it may be that it’s now gone on long enough to show that past shutdowns have had little impact on investors, consumers, or financial markets. “Even longer shutdowns such as the ones that took place in 2013 and 2018, which were disruptive and costly, did not move the stock market,” says Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer.
Timmer’s belief that shutdowns are not significant events for stocks is based on analyzing historical data about the performance of the S&P 500 during the 100 days before and after the 2013 and 2018 shutdowns. In both cases, stocks rose strongly in the 100 days following the shutdowns of nonessential government services.
Timmer also points out that the 2018 shutdown took place when stocks were nearing the tail end of what he calls an “unrelated 20% drawdown” and began a strong rally while the government was still on hiatus. So far this year, by comparison, stocks have followed a similar path, with a double-digit drop in April followed by a robust rally.
What this history shows is that market participants understand that short-lived political drama makes headlines but does not have a meaningful impact on corporate earnings, which are the primary drivers of stock prices. That's especially true for news events such as a shutdown where the eventual outcome is predictable. As Timmer puts it, "We've all seen this movie before and it always ends the same way."
S&P 500 performance around 2013 and 2018 shutdowns
How might a government shutdown affect the US's credit rating?
Perhaps the most significant longer-term impact of the shutdown for investors and consumers alike could stem from how credit rating agencies may react to the continuing turmoil in Washington. While markets may look past shutdowns, these firms who take a longer-term view of the government's fiscal well-being appear less willing to do so. Ratings agency Moody's has already downgraded the federal government's credit earlier this year, and further downgrades by all 3 ratings agencies are possible. That could raise borrowing costs for the government, potentially push up interest rates, and increase volatility in financial markets, perhaps long after the shutdown has ended.
Will a government shutdown affect the economy?
While history shows that government shutdowns have had little long-term effect on stock prices—or on the size and functioning of the federal government—they do have a potential economic impact if they drag on.
The federal government spends enormous amounts of money buying goods, providing services, and otherwise generating economic activity. A lengthy shutdown of even some of those activities could lower US economic activity by a measurable amount.
The government shutdown may have been a small drag on the economy but how much of drag is not easy to determine. That's because much of the data used to assess the health of the economy comes from federal government agencies whose operations have been reduced during the shutdown.
How will the end of the shutdown affect government services?
The end of the shutdown will mean the restoration of government services that were closed during the shutdown. Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare payments to recipients were not affected. Neither were what are called essential services such as federal law enforcement and disaster relief. The US Post Office was also not affected.
Some federal government employees who were not paid during the shutdown will again receive paychecks. If you are a federal employee whose pay has been disrupted, you may have a variety of ways to get cash in the short term.
What can investors learn from the government shutdown?
While the shutdown generated worrisome headlines and possibly some harm to the economy, the only thing most people have to fear is the temptation to overreact to those headlines and make personal financial decisions based on fear and uncertainty. If you already have an investment strategy built around your goals, financial situation, timeline, and risk tolerance, you likely don't need to make any changes in response to headlines. If you don't yet have a strategy in place, we can help you create one that may help you reach your goals and not worry about bad news.