Tensions between the US and other nations have ebbed and flowed over the years. Now the increasingly assertive policy stance by the US toward Iran, Cuba, Greenland, and Venezuela has raised uncertainty about what may happen next.
This sort of uncertainty can raise fear and anxiety for investors. If you are concerned, it may help to look at what has happened in the past. “The historical record shows that geopolitical crises have had political and humanitarian consequences, but not long-term economic and financial ones,” says Director of Quantitative Market Strategy Denise Chisholm.
Strikes and stocks
A historical analysis of US stock market performance during times when the US has threatened or used military force abroad shows that there has been little relationship between war and market performance. Stocks have historically risen or fallen based on traders’ and investors’ expectations about the earnings of the companies whose stocks they buy and sell each day, and wars have little impact on the ability of most of these companies to earn money.
This has even been true during wars between countries that play significant roles in the global economy. Russia and Ukraine have been locked in brutal combat since 2022 and both are major exporters of energy, food, and other commodities worldwide. That war is a human tragedy, but it has not hurt the S&P 500, which has risen by more than 60% since that war began. The war has even indirectly benefitted stocks in Europe where markets have been rising partly because European countries must now spend more on their own defense, particularly against Russia.
Belligerence and bonds
While wars have had little impact on stocks, they may potentially contribute to bond market volatility. Wars are rarely popular events and when a great power such as the US or Russia uses military force against a smaller, weaker nation, market participants around the world may respond by selling or refusing to buy new issues of the warring countries’ government bonds. Wars are expensive for governments to fund, and global investors have already expressed concern about the US government’s willingness to manage its debt by selling existing US Treasury bonds and reducing their purchases of newly issued ones.
It’s also not unthinkable that increased use of military force in a long-running regional rivalry such as the one between the US and Cuba or in the ongoing proxy conflicts between Israel and Iran could prompt some international buyers of Treasurys to reduce their exposure to US debt as a form of protest. If foreign buyers were to take either of those steps, prices in the Treasury market could move lower. Because bond yields rise when prices fall, that would push Treasury yields higher and eventually further raise the cost of funding government operations.
What you may want to consider—and what you may want to avoid doing
Stock markets reflect the beliefs of the people who participate in them about the future of companies’ earnings while bond markets reflect bondholders’ beliefs about how likely they are to get the interest and principal payments they expect. Professional investors know this and act on what they know, which includes recognizing that wars have historically had little influence on markets.
Sometimes, though, individual investors may get caught up in the emotions that media coverage of war can inflame. Ominous headlines and graphic images of death and destruction may stimulate a response from investors of “I need to take action” who lose sight of which events influence markets, and which do not.
Sometimes a strongly felt but inappropriate impulse to “do something” could prompt an emotional investor to sell stocks and bonds and retreat to cash, which they may hear described as a “safe haven” in times of war.
But history says that would be a mistake. Some of the best days in the stock market have historically occurred during bear markets. "What we've seen historically is that investors who give themselves a time out of the market very rarely come back in at the right time," says Naveen Malwal, institutional portfolio manager with Fidelity’s Strategic Advisers LLC. "Negative headlines can persist for some time. Investors typically wait for good news and by the time that happens, they've often missed some of the strongest days of market performance." Missing out on those big days can make a significant difference in your long-term return. As the chart below shows, a hypothetical investor who missed just the best 5 days in the market since 1988 could have reduced their long-term gains by 37%.
Seeking peace
Pursuing peace of mind may be the best way for an individual investor to manage the emotions that may tempt them to veer away from their investing plans in the face of an increasingly disorderly geopolitical world where bad news headlines seem commonplace. One way to do that is by owning a wide variety of investments. These can include international stocks as well as those from the US. Despite short-term geopolitical risks, Fidelity’s Asset Allocation Research Team expects international stocks to outperform US stocks over the next 20 years. Besides stocks, you may want to consider short-to-medium maturity bonds and alternative investments if they are appropriate for your needs and goals.
Fidelity’s professional investment management services may also help you manage your responses to wars and other bad news while keeping you on track toward your long-term investing goals. Malwal explains, “My team holds stocks and bonds across many different regions, countries, sectors, and industries. One result of our diversified approach is that our clients generally have very little direct exposure to investments in warring countries. That level of diversification can give investors some peace of mind in the face of events.”