2026 got off to an ugly start for crypto prices. While stocks and metals were soaring to new highs, bitcoin was selling off, dropping as low as $60,132 (well below the all-time high it made during the previous bull market at around $69,000).
However, in late February, bitcoin managed a rally that has some investors wondering: Is there any chance the market may have bottomed?
Let’s explore this question, as well as 3 other themes crypto investors should watch over the next several months.
Could bitcoin have bottomed?
Ultimately, no one can predict what the market will do in the future. With that said, there are various schools of thought as to where bitcoin’s price might go from here.
Those who believe bitcoin is conclusively in a bear market, and that the historical 4-year cycles will continue to play out, likely anticipate a bottom some time around November 2026 (roughly 4 years from its previous bear market bottom in November 2022). They may also note that in each of bitcoin’s previous bear market cycles, the price has dropped at least 70% from its bull market all-time high. As of early April, bitcoin’s recent low (made in February) is roughly 52% below its $126,220 all-time high.
However, it’s also worth noting that the fundamentals of the bitcoin market have changed compared to those of its previous cycles. “In its early days, bitcoin was viewed as a highly speculative investment with significant risk and virtually no track record,” says Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Zack Wainwright. “This resulted in sharp boom-and-bust cycles as investors tried to properly value this new digital currency.”
While investors continue to debate its proper value, bitcoin has also matured. In recent years, it has been pushed into the mainstream by growing institutional, corporate, and government adoption, as well as new crypto-friendly regulations and the increasing popularity of spot crypto ETPs (exchange-traded products). These factors may be changing the way bitcoin behaves.
“Based on bitcoin's annualized realized volatility,1 2025 was the least volatile year in its history,” says Wainwright. “Fidelity Digital Assets' research traces the cause to increased institutional involvement. With roughly 12% of bitcoin’s circulating supply held by public companies and within the ETPs today, this new demand dynamic is just beginning to find its footing.”
As a result, bitcoin’s volatility remained relatively low in 2025 amidst new all-time highs. “This has never happened before in previous bull markets,” says Wainwright. “Volatility has always risen dramatically when price was making all-time highs.”
In light of this, some believe that the traditional 4-year cycles are over, meaning we may see decreasing overall volatility from here on out. In other words, bear markets may no longer see drawdowns of 70% or higher before they hit the bottom. Those who hold to this interpretation may leave room for the possibility that the February low was indeed the bottom.
Is quantum computing a threat to bitcoin?
Some believe that one potential reason for bitcoin’s recent bearish price action stemmed from concerns regarding quantum computing.
Quantum computing is an emerging technology that enables computers to solve difficult problems extremely quickly. The worry is that this ability may allow bad actors to exploit bitcoin wallets with public addresses, raising concerns regarding cybersecurity. Currently, however, it’s a risk that primarily applies to old, dormant wallets, and is less of a concern for those managed with modern best practices.
Nevertheless, the technology could still be a few years away from becoming a legitimate threat, and the Fidelity Digital Assets Research team currently sees its potential impact as legitimate, but possibly limited. “If quantum computers were capable of exploiting bitcoin wallets in the future, only addresses with exposed public keys would be at risk,” says Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Daniel Gray.
The team also believes that if old wallets are successfully exploited, the main impact on the market could be a significant—but temporary—increase in volatility, as stolen coins are sold on the market.
Elsewhere, the Bitcoin community is working on a soft fork proposal called BIP 360, which aims to strengthen network security with quantum-resistant Bitcoin addresses that hide public keys. As of March, the proposal is still being debated in the community, and there is no guarantee it will be adopted.
In the meantime, investors would benefit from staying in the know, and making sure any custodians they use are aware as well. “Following best security practices and maintaining good address hygiene can help significantly reduce the chances of losing funds,” says Gray.
What’s going on with stablecoins?
Stablecoins may not grab headlines like other cryptocurrencies due to their comparatively lower volatility. But since the GENIUS Act was signed into law last July, their adoption has been steadily growing.
Globally, transaction volumes broke above $34 trillion in 2025,2 as world governments, corporations, and financial institutions increasingly experiment with use cases for payments, settlements, and trading. In the first quarter of 2026, a new batch of traditional finance platforms have either launched or are actively exploring stablecoin integrations. And in late February, Meta (
“Stablecoins have the potential to become the new infrastructure the finance industry runs on—the new rails, if you will,” says Parth Gargava, Managing Director, Fidelity Labs.
These transaction-oriented cryptocurrencies typically run on existing blockchain networks like Ethereum and Solana. Investors hope increasing adoption will help boost the value of these networks’ corresponding cryptocurrencies.
What is the CLARITY Act and why is the industry eagerly anticipating it?
The crypto industry is awaiting further action in the Senate on the CLARITY Act, a bill that would establish clear regulatory guidelines for cryptocurrency and blockchain operations in the US. While the GENIUS Act created guidelines specifically for stablecoins, CLARITY would do the same for the industry as a whole.
Supporters are hoping it becomes law because they believe it could open the floodgates for domestic crypto innovation and development.
“The CLARITY Act outlines which regulatory agency has oversight on which digital assets—whether it's the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and whether the asset is a security or a commodity,” says Gargava. “Similar to what we saw in 2025 for stablecoins post the GENIUS Act, I think we could see a surge of new digital assets if the CLARITY Act gets passed.”
In addition to defining which regulatory agency applies to which types of cryptocurrencies, CLARITY also seeks to provide guidelines for crypto exchanges, staking and mining operations, DeFi platforms, blockchain layers, dApps, and more.
Meanwhile, skeptics question whether its provisions provide sufficient protection for consumers and stability for the broader financial ecosystem. The bill is currently being debated in the Senate.