With resilient US consumers expected to flock to stores on Black Friday and drive higher holiday sales this year, some investors may be considering adding retailer stocks to their shopping carts.
Before making an investment decision based on Black Friday headlines, though, it may be better to focus on broader forces shaping the retailing industry, including consumer financial health, shifting spending patterns, and emerging technologies, Fidelity pros say.
"Years ago, Black Friday was key to the success of the holiday shopping season for retailers," says Jordan Michaels, manager of the Fidelity® Select Consumer Discretionary Portfolio (FSCPX). "Now, shopping starts to ramp up in October. That's not to say Black Friday doesn't matter, but it's not the iconic kickoff to the holiday season that it used to be."
Do retail stocks go up because of Black Friday?
History has shown us that investors shouldn't assume a strong Black Friday automatically translates into strong returns for retailer stocks.
Retailer stocks have generally moved sideways during the final 5 weeks of the year. Historically, nearly all of the sector's average fourth-quarter gains occurred before Black Friday, with gains averaging about 5%.1 That may be because markets have priced in expectations well before consumers begin their shopping.
"In general, I try not to invest in retail stocks based on holiday trends. They tend to be short-term phenomena," says Julia Pei, manager of the Fidelity® Select Retailing Fund (FSRPX). “That said, consumers have become more focused on promotions and event-based buying in recent years, reflecting modest financial stress and growing accustomed to this kind of buying."
For long-term investors, holiday sales may be worth monitoring, but broader economic and consumer trends often play a larger role in driving retailer stock performance.
Why Black Friday matters, but less for retail stocks than it used to
Black Friday, the day after US Thanksgiving, has traditionally marked the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, with retailers offering blockbuster discounts to attract consumers into stores. By some estimates, US retail sales from November 2026 through January 2027 could increase nearly 5% this year to as much as $1.71 trillion, including some $320 billion in online sales.2
Holiday shopping remains critically important to retailers. According to the National Retail Federation, the holiday season accounts for roughly 20% of annual retail sales, with categories such as toys, jewelry, and electronics generating an even larger share of yearly revenue during the final months of the year.
Yet the rise of e-commerce has fundamentally changed Black Friday's significance to retailer stocks and the markets more broadly.3
What was once a single day of doorbuster promotions has evolved into a shopping season that can begin weeks, and sometimes months, before Thanksgiving. Retailers increasingly launch promotions throughout October and November, spreading consumer purchases across a longer period.
As a result, investors today focus less on Black Friday itself and more on what holiday spending reveals about the strength of the American consumer.
How are consumer trends shaping retail stocks?
Retailers have entered the home stretch of 2026 in reasonably healthy shape, Pei says. Sales have benefited from tax refunds earlier in the year and easing pressure from tariffs. Challenges remain, including higher costs associated with the conflict in Iran.
"Retailers are entering the end of this year in an OK position, but in 2027, higher freight and fuel costs will be a bigger concern," Pei says.
For many investors, the most important question may not be how much consumers spend during Black Friday, but who is doing the spending.
Last year, consumer spending remained resilient despite concerns that tariffs and inflation would pressure household budgets. This year, however, sharply higher prices for gasoline and other essentials could pose an additional challenge.
"The prolonged impact of higher gas prices likely has a more meaningful impact on holiday spending this season," Pei says.
Retailers have been responding by competing aggressively on price, she adds. In some cases, companies are choosing not to fully pass higher costs on to consumers, a decision that can put pressure on profit margins.
How is the growing wealth gap impacting retail?
Spending power has become increasingly concentrated among wealthier Americans.
The top 10% of earners, households making at least $210,000 annually, account for about half of all US consumer spending and hold roughly 70% of household wealth, according to Moody's Analytics 2025 research. Three decades ago, that group accounted for about 36% of spending.4
This shift has created both opportunities and risks for retailers. Wealthier households have benefited from rising home values and a prolonged bull market in stocks, while many lower-income consumers continue to grapple with inflation and limited exposure to appreciating financial assets.
As economic conditions evolve, understanding which customer base a retailer serves may be just as important as understanding its sales growth.
Michaels says his portfolio has included retailers that he believes may benefit from consumers seeking greater value, such as TJX Companies (
Could AI reshape shopping and disrupt retailers?
Beyond consumer spending trends, Fidelity's portfolio managers are also evaluating the potential long-term impact of artificial intelligence.
According to Ben Shuleva, co-manager of the Fidelity® Select Consumer Staples Portfolio (FDFAX), AI could reshape how consumers discover and purchase products.
"Retailers will continue to fulfill products to consumers, but their grip on the customer relationship could weaken if consumers increasingly begin shopping through AI assistants rather than retailer websites and apps," Shuleva says.
Retailers have traditionally generated value by helping consumers discover, evaluate, and choose products. AI tools are designed to simplify those tasks, potentially reducing retailers' influence over the shopping journey.
The trend could have implications for companies such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target, which have built increasingly important businesses around influencing product discovery.
"If product discovery happens on a large language model instead of a retailer's platform, the economics of retail media become far less certain," Shuleva says.
How can I invest in retail stocks?
Black Friday remains one of the most watched events on the retail calendar, but Fidelity's portfolio managers say investors should look beyond a single day or weekend when evaluating stocks. Consumer trends, the growing wealth gap, and the emergence of AI may ultimately have a greater impact on retailers. Investors who may be considering investing in the space can:
- Research individual stocks by using Fidelity’s online investing tools.
- Seek broad exposure with a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) that has holdings in multiple retailer stocks.
If you’re considering an ETF that invests in the retail sector, here are 7 results from the Fidelity.com ETF screener featuring large-cap common stocks in the consumer discretionary sector, focused on retail or e-commerce, and sorted by total net assets as of Oct. 15, 2026:
- Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (
) - iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF (
) - State Street® SPDR® S&P® Retail ETF (
) - VanEck Retail ETF (
) - Amplify Online Retail ETF (
) - ProShares Online Retail ETF (
) - Global X E-Commerce ETF (
)
If you’re considering a mutual fund that invests in the retail sector, here are 3 results from the Fidelity.com mutual fund screener that are focused on retailers and e-commerce companies, sorted by total assets as of Oct. 15, 2026: