February 17, 2026

IN THIS ISSUE: AI bubble signs, high health costs, and a surprising investing risk

GOOD START

Here are 5 ways to snowball your savings this year.

THE HEADLINES

Pop culture

What’s happening: Tech stock prices have recently been experiencing some volatility, and there’s buzz about an AI bubble.

Here’s why: Stocks surged in 2025 from excitement around the potential of big AI-related profits. Lately, investors might be feeling anxious about how AI could impact future tech business growth—as in, if AI can do what businesses contract tech companies to do, will those tech companies continue to earn as much money?

What it means: Generally speaking, when results fall significantly short of investors’ expectations, some investors could head for the exits. In this case, Fidelity pros think the sector just might be experiencing temporary growing pains. These are the 5 signs of an AI bubble Fidelity pros watch for, and reasons why they don’t think we’re there yet.

Even still, if you have a lower risk tolerance or are investing for a short- or medium-term goal, you may want to make sure you’re not holding a disproportionate amount of tech stocks given the volatility. Consider spreading out your risk by rebalancing your portfolio in 4 simple steps.

• • •

Odd jobs

What’s happening: The job market may be sending mixed signals, but the economy is still generally stable.

Here’s why: Layoffs in January ticked up to their highest level for the start of any year since 2009.¹ Plus, recent government data showed nearly 1 million job openings were shed in 2025.² But then January’s jobs report released last week showed better-than-expected hiring and a slightly dipped unemployment rate.³ More positive signs: Corporate profits are trending up, and consumer spending is healthy.

What it means for you: While the economy remains relatively strong, there’s still news of widespread layoffs, which may contribute to personal uncertainty. These 15 ways to protect your career and finances could offer some proactive ideas.

• • •

Pain point

What’s happening: Millions of Americans are expected to pay more for health insurance in 2026.

Here’s why: Enhanced tax credits that made Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans more affordable expired January 1. On average, people who had been receiving subsidies may pay an estimated 114% more for these monthly premiums, according to health nonprofit KFF.⁴ Even employer-sponsored health plan premiums are expected to be up another 6% to 7% over last year, according to Mercer, a consulting firm.⁵ That’s after rising 6% to 7% per year in the past 3 years for family coverage, according to KFF.⁶

What it means for you: If you’re on an ACA plan, your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI)—your annual income with certain adjustments—helps determine what you pay for health care premiums. The lower your MAGI, the less you might pay, so consider reducing your MAGI through tax deductions like these.

Another potential health cost cutter: itemizing qualified unreimbursed medical and dental expenses⁷ on your tax return if they exceed both 7.5% of your adjusted gross income and your standard deduction when added to your other itemized deductions (find the standard deduction for your filing status here). Need more ideas? Here are 10 ways to slash medical expenses, plus help for navigating higher health care costs.

COULD YOU BENEFIT FROM AN IRA?

WE WANT TO KNOW …

Americans are expected to pay less in taxes this season and could see refunds of $1,000 more than other years on average.⁸ How do you think you’ll fare?

I think I’ll pay more.

I think I’ll pay less.

I think I’ll pay about the same.

I’m not sure.

Psst … you could save 25% or more on tax prep if you’re a Fidelity customer.

HOW TO

Find stock ideas for 2026

These 4 market trends may offer opportunities this year. Whether you’re seeking income through dividend-paying stocks or want to get in on international stocks, we’ve screened for the top 10 holdings for each.

Investments to consider

MONEY LIE DETECTOR

There may be risks to investing too conservatively.

True.

Whether headlines are making you nervous, or your tolerance for taking risks with your money is always low, playing it too safe could cost you. Inflation means your purchasing power could shrink in more conservative allocations, like cash or fixed income. That could hurt your broader financial goals, so consider whether investing dollars in assets that have potential for greater gains makes sense for your personal situation.

Here’s help for understanding types of investing risks and how to reduce risk wisely.

NEXT STEPS TO CONSIDER

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1. Jeff Cox, “Layoffs in January were the highest to start a year since 2009, Challenger says,” CNBC, February 5, 2026.

2. Matt Grossman, “US Economy Shed Nearly 1 Million Job Openings Last Year,” The Wall Street Journal, February 5, 2026.

3. Jeff Cox, “US payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.3%,” CNBC, February 11, 2026.

4. Cynthia Cox, “ACA Insurers Are Raising Premiums by an Estimated 26%, but Most Enrollees Could See Sharper Increases in What They Pay,” KFF, October 28, 2025.

5. Beth Umland and Sunit Patel, “Employers prepare for the highest health benefit cost increase in 15 years,” Mercer, September 3, 2025.

6. “Annual Family Premiums for Employer Coverage Rise 6% in 2025, Nearing $27,000, with Workers Paying $6,850 Toward Premiums Out of Their Paychecks,” KFF, October 22, 2025.

7. You are leaving Fidelity.com for another website. The site owner is not affiliated with Fidelity or your employer and is solely responsible for the information and services it provides. Fidelity disclaims any liability arising from your use of such information or services. Review the new site’s terms, conditions, and privacy policy, as they will be different from those of Fidelity’s sites.

8. Jeanne Sahadi, “Why federal tax refunds may be bigger than usual,” CNN, January 26, 2026.
Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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