This credit ratings transition matrix, based off of Moody's Investors Service research, can help to provide historical perspective on the likelihood of a corporate or municipal bond being upgraded or downgraded for a particular credit rating range. Here, Moody's summarizes the cumulative changes in credit ratings over a fifty-year period using a one-year time horizon. Each cell shows the percentage of credits that held rating X (specified by the row) at the beginning of the period and rating Y (specified by the column) at the end of the period.
The full Moody's Investors Services Data Report (PDF) provides not only credit ratings transition rate data, but also key findings on emerging trends from the last couple of years, default & recovery statistics, and other interesting and helpful charts on sectors of the corporate and public finance markets.
United States Public Finance Average One-Year Transition Rates (1970-2019)
All Municipals
| Moody's Rating From/To | Aaa | Aa | A | Baa | Ba | B | Caa-C | Withdrawn | Default |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaa | 94.81% | 1.19% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 3.85% | 0.00% |
| Aa | 0.32% | 94.63% | 1.03% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 3.97% | 0.00% |
| A | 0.03% | 1.81% | 92.73% | 0.61% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 4.67% | 0.00% |
| Baa | 0.02% | 0.07% | 3.39% | 89.41% | 1.72% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 5.10% | 0.03% |
| Ba | 0.04% | 0.22% | 2.10% | 4.81% | 80.42% | 2.74% | 0.63% | 8.82% | 0.23% |
| B | 0.00% | 0.25% | 0.90% | 1.02% | 5.61% | 76.13% | 5.35% | 8.11% | 2.64% |
| Caa-C | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.69% | 0.25% | 1.50% | 2.73% | 72.94% | 13.64% | 8.25% |
Source: Moody's Investors Services Data Report (PDF), July 2020
Global Corporates
| Moody's Rating From/To | Aaa | Aa | A | Baa | Ba | B | Caa-C | Withdrawn | Default |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaa | 87.90% | 7.78% | 0.59% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 3.63% | 0.00% |
| Aa | 0.79% | 85.30% | 8.46% | 0.42% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 4.90% | 0.02% |
| A | 0.05% | 2.48% | 86.99% | 5.18% | 0.46% | 0.10% | 0.04% | 4.65% | 0.05% |
| Baa | 0.03% | 0.13% | 4.02% | 86.12% | 3.59% | 0.65% | 0.16% | 5.15% | 0.16% |
| Ba | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.40% | 6.14% | 76.53% | 7.00% | 0.81% | 8.25% | 0.84% |
| B | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.13% | 0.44% | 4.84% | 73.67% | 7.05% | 10.81% | 3.04% |
| Caa-C | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.08% | 0.32% | 5.94% | 69.64% | 15.10% | 8.89% |
Source: Moody's Investors Services Data Report (PDF), July 2020
